英文文献：Business Cycle and Speculative Pressures in a Target Zone-目标区内的商业周期和投机压力
英文文献作者：M. Isabel Campos López,M. Araceli Rodríguez López
英文文献摘要：
In the past time, most economies have suffered cyclical fluctuations in their activity which may influence the optimal use of productive factors in long slow-growth phases or price stability in periods of fast growth. This paper focuses on the possible interrelationship between business cycles and exchange rate fluctuations. We have chosen the European Monetary System framework in the nineties, from June 1989 to December 1998, because the Peseta belonged to the EMS during that time. This sample is specially interesting because it includes the worst crisis of the System in 1992-93 and the following ones affecting emerging countries like Mexico, Brazil or Russia at the end of the decade. We use a Binary Dependent Variable Logit Model to estimate the readjustment probability inside a band for two currencies, the Peseta and the french Franc . We calculate the dependent variable values from a Markov-Switching Regime Model with constant transition probabilities. We prove that it is a suitable method and that it allows both real and monetary variables to be identified in order to explain speculative pressures.

过去，大多数经济体的经济活动都经历了周期性波动，这可能会影响到在长期缓慢增长阶段对生产要素的最佳利用，或在快速增长时期的价格稳定。本文主要研究商业周期和汇率波动之间可能存在的相互关系。我们选择了90年代的欧洲货币体系框架，从1989年6月到1998年12月，因为比塞塔在那段时间属于新兴市场国家。这个样本特别有趣，因为它包括了1992-93年该体系最严重的危机，以及接下来在10年末影响墨西哥、巴西或俄罗斯等新兴国家的危机。本文采用二元因变量Logit模型来估计比塞塔和法国法郎两种货币在一个区间内的调整概率。我们从一个具有恒定转移概率的马尔可夫切换体制模型中计算因变量值。我们证明这是一种合适的方法，它允许确定实际和货币变量，以解释投机压力。