ASEAN Equity Strategy：How to Play Potential Delay in Fed Taper

摩根士丹利Aarti P Shah,Hozefa Topiwalla

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　　Outlook remains challenging: We continue to believethat the outlook for ASEAN3 equity markets for the next12 months will remain challenging. We continue torecommend investors rotate out of DomesticConsumption stocks and into Global Cyclicals. Webelieve that the potential impact of rising real rates ondomestic growth is not fully priced into DomesticConsumption stocks. 　　We think that a potential delay in Fed tapering is likely toprovide another opportunity for investors to reduce theirOW positions in Domestic Consumption stocks as weexpect US 10-year bond yields to rise to 3.36% inC3Q14 from 2.65% currently. However, we believe thatdomestic cyclical stocks, particularly in Indonesia, wouldoutperform if the Fed potentially continues to delay thetaper. We recommend OW Indonesia Banks (BBCA andBMRI) and Materials (SMGR).