英文文献：Trade growth in a heterogeneous firm model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe-异质企业模型中的贸易增长:来自东南欧的证据
英文文献作者：d'Artis Kancs
英文文献摘要：
In 2007 a Free Trade Area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study the potential impact of BFTA on trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or higher volume of goods and varieties are exported, in this paper we investigate the structure of integration-induced export growth in the Balkans. The empirical implementation of our analysis is complicated by the fact that firm-level trade data is not available for the SEE economies. In order to cope with this data paucity, we adopt a heterogeneous firm framework, which allows us to decompose the aggregate trade growth in two parts: the intensive margin of trade and the extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. The empirical findings of our study suggest that the BFTA would primarily trigger trade growth through a growing number of exported goods (the extensive margin of trade).Thus, the actual welfare gains from trade growth in the Balkans might be larger than predicted by previous trade studies. We also found that a variable trade cost reduction would lead to higher export growth rates compared to a fixed trade cost reduction. These results allow us to draw detailed policy conclusions.

2007年，一个自由贸易区(BFTA)将在巴尔干地区建立。在本文中，我们研究了BFTA对SEE贸易增长的潜在影响。鉴于与贸易增长相关的福利影响取决于增长渠道，出口更多的商品和品种，或以更高的价格或更高的数量出口的商品和品种，在本文中，我们研究了一体化导致的巴尔干地区出口增长的结构。由于没有SEE经济体的企业层面的贸易数据，我们分析的实证实施变得复杂。为了应对这种数据的缺乏，我们采用异质企业框架，允许我们分解两部分的总贸易增长:密集的贸易边际和广泛的贸易边际仅使用总贸易数据。我们研究的实证结果表明，BFTA将主要通过出口商品数量的增加(贸易的广泛边际)来触发贸易增长。因此，巴尔干地区从贸易增长中获得的实际福利收益可能比以前的贸易研究预测的要大。我们还发现，可变贸易成本的降低比固定贸易成本的降低会导致更高的出口增长率。这些结果使我们能够得出详细的政策结论。