1.       作者：Yiping Huang，Hong Kong
Hak Bin Chua，Asian Equity Economist

2.       资源类别：报告

3.       格式：pdf，725K，96页，英文

➤ The global economy is experiencing significant stress, with intensified
financial strains, housing adjustments and high oil prices. But it also has
important sources of resilience, including robust activities outside the
housing sector in the US and strength in core emerging economies
➤ We forecast only a cyclical slowdown in the coming months, especially in
industrial countries, but we expect central banks to ease policy, including
another 100bp rate cut by the Fed. However, the level of uncertainty around
our base case is unusually high
➤ Asia is likely to continue above-8% growth over the next two years, with
China and India leading the pack. Indonesia and Malaysia may have the
best chance for growth acceleration. Growth performance may also improve
in Taiwan and Thailand after elections
➤ China’s current economic policies are likely to continue under the new
government, and discussions about the economic impact of the Olympics
are often exaggerated. Important transitions, however, could begin soon in
the asset markets, external surpluses and role of investment
➤ The investment share of GDP will probably rise further in China and India.
A gradual investment recovery is also likely to continue in Southeast Asia.
This should support global commodity markets, especially those where
Asian demand dominates
➤ Inflation could be a wild card to our base case outlook, alongside a US
recession. The recent uptick in food prices may be structural. Oil price
distortions could cause fiscal and currency account positions to deteriorate
and hurt currencies. Stagflation, though, still looks highly unlikely
➤ Expected aggressive easing by the Fed would lead to lower short-term rates
in Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines. It might also increase
probability of rate cuts in India and Indonesia. In China, Taiwan and
Vietnam, however, the central banks are more likely to hike rates to fight
inflation
➤ Capital inflows to Asia could increase again. Sluggish US growth and lower
US interest rates could lead to more capital flow to Asia. New regional
initiatives such as sovereign wealth funds and capital account liberalization
might also strengthen intra-regional capital flows
➤ Renminbi appreciation is likely to pick up on growing internal and external
pressure. The rupee and peso could closely chase the renminbi, but the won
and Taiwan dollar are likely to trail behind. The Hong Kong dollar peg
should stay, despite a recent jump in inflation
➤ Rising equity valuations bring a shift from absolutes to relatives. Our equity
strategist, Markus Rosgen, finds no evidence that equity markets re-rate, bar
for short periods. Growth uncertainties, rising volatility and a rolling over
of liquidity should continue to push investors back toward value. Large caps
should benefit most from this. We remain bullish on large cap North Asia.