研报：China Property - Reform of Land System and Next Round of Urbanization

公司：花旗 Citi

语言：英文

页数：44页

日期：2013年11月5日


目录：

Second Round of Urbanization: Likely One of Best New Growth Engines in 2013-23     3

Background on China’s Household Registration (Hukou) and Land Systems     4

Fast Economic Growth, Rapid Urbanization in 1997-2012     6

What Was China’s Secret? Development Model (Export + FAI) Was All About LAND     8

1. Land requisition = Compulsory requisition+ low compensation + transfer of land-use rights     11

2. Land-driven fiscal revenue     12

3. Land-driven financing     16

Problems in Rapid Urbanization of 1997-2012     19

Urban Areas     19

Rural Areas     19

Best Paths for Next-Round of Urbanization     23

Further urbanization likely to be one of the best new growth engines for China’s economy in 2013-2023     23

1. Proceeding from “quasi” to “real” urbanization (migrant worker population of 253m)     24

2. Metropolitan area-driven urbanization; Building-up of 8 to 10 metropolitan Areas     25

3. Further reform of land system; best preparation for China sustainable urbanization and domestic consumption     28

Possible Land Reform/ Urbanization Measures in 3rd Plenary Session of 18th CPC     30

Impact on Property Sector from Further Urbanization     32

1, “Dual-mode” property market – more market oriented     32

2. Divergent outlook: Bright for 8-10 metropolitan areas and negative for most Tier 3/4 cities     34

Strategy: Stocks to Focus on Ahead of Likely Rally     35

New policy mentality; new stock pick focus     35

Appendix A-1     40