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全球天然气行业研报入门
英文 120页
Table of contents
Executive summary 4
Europe & Russia 5
North America 5
Asia-Pacific 6
Stock conclusions 8
Global LNG 12
Conclusion: Tight through 2016 with plenty of projects competing to fill late decade demand 12
Global LNG capacity to increase by 61% by 2020E 14
Global LNG demand – Growth from Europe and Asia 16
Pricing is key – Asia won’t take LNG at any price 18
“Advantaged” LNG projects to win 19
LNG transportation – Finding its stride 27
Europe 30
Main conclusions 30
Gas supply in Europe 31
Gas demand in Europe 38
Gas for power generation – Does the German nuclear pull-out change the picture? 39
Russia and Central Asia 48
Russian production should grow by 33% until 2020E 48
Liberalisation of Russian gas market looks inevitable 52
Gazprom and CNPC – Opposing views 54
We believe Russia must rethink its pricing policy to prevent demand destruction in Europe 56
Asia 57
China – Focusing on domestic unconventional gas 57
India: Demand is price sensitive 70
Japan – Expect only modest LNG tightening 76
Australia – Still all about LNG 82
Australia – Willing LNG exporter 82
Too many LNG projects equals cost and schedule concerns 83
LNG investment – The sting is in the tail 86
Viability of projects 88
Landowner and political relationships becoming a larger issue 89
North America 90
US LNG: How quickly the world changes 90
US gas production, resources and demand 91
An overview of the key North America LNG export schemes 94
Latin America 96
Overview 96
Key country-specific themes 97
Model 101
Middle East 102
Strong demand growth 102
Rising MidEast LNG imports 104
Can supply keep up with demand? 104
Gas prices 107
Appendix: Global gas model 108