Coal and Freight Quarterly
2014: Bring it on

英文 51页

• The story of 2012 will be the story of supply, as coal trade is on track to expand by a
supply-led 82 mt (a 10.5% y/y increase). With every major exporter adding volume,
and the US chipping in an incremental 13 mt, 2012 saw the coal market awash with
supply, and prices duly tumbled. European prices were down 24% over the year,
Australian prices declined 28%, and Chinese prices decreased 30%.
• The strong supply side this year has stimulated demand. We expect European takes
to be up by some 15 mt (mostly in the UK and Spain), Indian imports to rise 18 mt
and Chinese imports to increase by an impressive 40 mt y/y.
• Looking ahead to 2013 and 2014, the supply side continues to look buoyant with
investments coming to fruition in many of the major exporting countries and
thereby increasing export capacity. In total, we have identified projects that could
add 136 mt of export capacity by the end of 2014 – a 15% increase on 2012 trade.