各位大神帮帮忙啦!
     本人正在做一篇关于林业科技进步贡献率的论文,使用1978-2011年的数据,Y林业总产值,K历年固定投资,l劳动力投入,采用索洛余值法。我先用生产函数取对数将
α,β求出,α=1.440,β=1.833,为什么A也就是算出来是-33.708,这样求出的科技进步贡献率有正有负而且绝对值比1还大,怎么解释? 谁能帮忙解决一下哈,跪谢跪谢!
下面是具体数值
| 年份 | 林业产值增长速度 | 资本增长速度 | 劳动力增长速度 | 科技进步速度 | 科技进步贡献率 | 
| 1978 | 0.068809 | 0.844193 | 0.236278 | -1.06737 | -15.51210597 | 
| 1979 | 0.086822 | 0.068162 | 0.049776 | -0.01532 | -0.176477364 | 
| 1980 | -0.04332 | -0.04233 | -0.03812 | 0.02256 | -0.520786567 | 
| 1981 | 0.196954 | -0.08305 | 0.022063 | 0.293367 | 1.489519019 | 
| 1982 | 0.083758 | 0.172901 | 0.035217 | -0.14448 | -1.724962021 | 
| 1983 | 0.039062 | -0.06672 | -0.01278 | 0.126856 | 3.247541168 | 
| 1984 | 0.093544 | 0.053438 | 0.001393 | 0.026221 | 0.28030728 | 
| 1985 | -0.02496 | -0.06284 | 0.012898 | 0.049278 | -1.973980514 | 
| 1986 | -0.50231 | 0.189505 | 0.03005 | -0.74957 | 1.492237856 | 
| 1987 | 0.575568 | -0.04619 | 0.021884 | 0.625938 | 1.087513989 | 
| 1988 | -0.52313 | -0.14245 | 0.037005 | -0.35747 | 0.683337509 | 
| 1989 | -0.14919 | -0.20983 | 0.002995 | 0.112285 | -0.75261521 | 
| 1990 | 1.755256 | 0.063791 | -0.00526 | 1.677236 | 0.955550593 | 
| 1991 | 0.070017 | 0.128635 | 0.022286 | -0.09846 | -1.406221069 | 
| 1992 | 0.096393 | 0.171611 | -0.00152 | -0.11778 | -1.221860828 | 
| 1993 | 0.709583 | 0.094217 | 0.013628 | 0.587097 | 0.827383118 | 
| 1994 | 0.105117 | -0.16684 | 0.196396 | 0.247258 | 2.352230403 | 
| 1995 | 0.027205 | -0.01389 | -0.02977 | 0.054671 | 2.009624101 | 
| 1996 | 0.020563 | 0.086731 | 0.003575 | -0.08915 | -4.335377701 | 
| 1997 | 0.1144 | 0.216284 | -0.0494 | -0.13943 | -1.218749791 | 
| 1998 | 0.460013 | 0.281606 | -0.17307 | 0.166393 | 0.361713688 | 
| 1999 | 0.204642 | 0.411677 | -0.06204 | -0.28933 | -1.413855612 | 
| 2000 | 0.132355 | 0.60538 | -0.10582 | -0.5891 | -4.450911335 | 
| 2001 | 0.159635 | 0.211563 | -0.07829 | -0.07849 | -0.491697015 | 
| 2002 | 0.147954 | 0.508762 | -0.06143 | -0.46768 | -3.161015001 | 
| 2003 | 0.265665 | 0.237884 | -0.05323 | -0.01388 | -0.052264177 | 
| 2004 | 0.14407 | -0.10579 | -0.03662 | 0.288826 | 2.004760815 | 
| 2005 | 0.217385 | 0.099987 | -0.0343 | 0.103928 | 0.478083393 | 
| 2006 | 0.246822 | 0.06655 | -0.02168 | 0.170916 | 0.692467559 | 
| 2007 | 0.133499 | 0.099211 | -0.02423 | 0.0176 | 0.131838711 | 
| 2008 | 0.08547 | 0.340335 | -0.04056 | -0.32654 | -3.820503659 | 
| 2009 | 0.229092 | 0.402447 | -0.01611 | -0.26891 | -1.1738052 | 
| 2010 | 0.263026 | 0.109533 | 0.028083 | 0.11648 | 0.442846291 | 
| 2011 | 0.280481 | 0.601912 | 0.186559 | -0.53575 | -1.910122248 |