The JPMorgan View
• Economics –– This week’s data were at the positive side making us more
comfortable with a soft landing rather than recession scenario
• Cross-markets –– Markets are pricing reduced recession risks this week, but
we remain in less-directional exposures,, focusing on relative value across
sectors and countries, as news flow will stay negative and volatile.
• Fixed Income –– We trade bonds from the positive and steepening side as risk
remains high that central banks will be forced to deliver more rate cuts
• Equities –– Our 2008 outlooks see returns around 10% for major equity
markets with Japan and EM outperforming. Overweight EM and Japan across
regions and stay long growth vs value.
• Credit –– Take part profit on the underweights in US Financial and HG overall
but stay net short. Stay long loans vs bonds in HY and overweight EM
external debt both outright and vs US HY.
• FX –– A low-rate environment is dollar-negative. Stay short vs EUR and JPY.
• Commodities –– Crude’s correction has further to run.

[此贴子已经被wesker1999于2007-12-24 16:17:59编辑过]