百富勤公司中国银行业研究报告：政策面会松动吗？--建议减持
China Banks Sector: Signs of easing? – Under weight   
PDF格式　英文原版　发布日期：２００８－２－１５

Expectation of credit easing has emerged too early

The recent snow storm and growing concerns over US recession have accompanied wide expectation for easing of credit tightening measures in China, especially since the recent remarks of policy makers have diverted from their previous harsh stance. But our communication with a few key listed banks confirms there has been no guidance from the regulator so far that the targeted 13.5% credit growth for 2008 (or RMB3.7t new loans) for the system will be lifted, though expectations are rising for relaxing credit control in 2H08. More importantly, each 1% change in loan growth rate only affects banks’ earnings by 1.3% to 1.4%, assuming that other  factors remain unchanged. This confirms our belief that what will have a  larger impact on earnings is not slower credit expansion but its consequence, including continued bearish sentiment in the A-share stock market and pressure on asset quality...........

[此贴子已经被wesker1999于2008-2-15 19:10:00编辑过]