高盛研究报告：人民银行对货币供给已经失控吗？

Is the PBOC losing its control over money supply?
pdf格式  发布日期 February 15, 2008

Is the PBOC losing its control over money supply?
1.
After a brief dip in December 2007, both money supply and loan growth rebounded sharply in January 2008. The magnitude of the money supply rebound is especially disheartening, given the heightened risks of inflation. This unexpected monetary loosening has not only clouded the inflation outlook for the rest of this year, but also cast doubts on the government’s capability to control money supply by mainly relying on administrative controls.
2.
The strong monetary data in January has again confirmed that, under the current interest rate and exchange rate environment, both the demand for and supply of credit remain buoyant. In other words, the frequent reserve requirement ratio hikes and the limited adjustments in interest rate and currency so far have left monetary policy still (far) behind the curve, and are not restrictive on the margin for banks. As a result, the only binding constraint for bank lending remains to be the heavy-handed “window guidance” by the central bank, i.e., their enforcement of the credit quota.........