J.P. Morgan Gold Watch
14 February 2014
The rand gold price closed on Thursday at cR459,000/kg, up 1.9% on the
previous week’s close of cR451,000/kg. The JSE Gold Index rose 11.2%
to 1432pts (1,288) on the following gains: AngloGold (+12.6%), Sibanye
Gold (+12.4%) and Harmony (+14.6%).
J.P. Morgan Analysis
The SA Gold shares gained in the week, supported by a high rand gold
price of cR459,000/kg. The bearish remarks by the Fed chairman
regarding the unemployment situation in the US and the suspension of
the debt ceiling to March 15, 2015 are supportive of a stronger dollar
gold price over the near term, in our view. Meanwhile, the Indian
government may consider easing gold import restrictions at the next
budget (in March) which would be positive for the gold demand there.
The rand remains at relatively weak levels of around R11.00:$1.00 and
continues to support the local miners. With the rand gold price strongly
outperforming the dollar price, we see the local producers offering the
most compelling value. We expect Sibanye Gold in particular to deliver
handsome rewards for investors this year. The risk remains of AMCU-led
industrial action in some local gold mines, although this may be
diminishing based on the Labour Court interdict of January 30, 2014 –
the next court date is 14 March.