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在与索罗关于工资和价格指导线问题的争论中，弗里德曼(1966年)第一次公开对菲利普斯曲线提出批评。1967年12月弗里德曼在对美国经济协会发表他的题为《货币政策的作用》的会长演说中充分发挥了他的思想。这个思想后来被称作“愚弄模型”(fooling model)。在这篇演说中，弗里德曼指出，原始的菲利普斯曲线是不能成立的，因为他把失业率与货币工资率的变化联系在一起，即把失业或就业看作是货币工资率的函数；根据古典经济理论，应当按照实际工资率的变化来建立菲利普斯曲线。弗里德曼还提出适应性预期假说和自然失业率假说，并主张把预期的通货膨胀率作为一个决定货币工资变化率的附加变量来扩展菲利普斯曲线(即附加预期变量的菲利普斯曲线)。在此基础上，他区分了短期菲利普斯曲线与长期菲利普斯曲线，认为对于一个既定的预期的通货膨胀率来说，存在通货膨胀与失业之间的短期替换关系，但是长期的菲利普斯曲线在自然失业率水平上是垂直的，这就否定了在通货膨胀和失业之间存在持久的长期的权衡选择。

Friedman "Fooling" Theory

Say you're eating a lunch at a park. A robin searches for worms in the grass. Lilacs perfume the air. A breeze massages your senses. Your lunch companion asks, "What do you think the weather will be like in a couple of hours?" If you're like many, you'll form your prediction by looking at the past. You might say, "The weather will be like it is now."

Nobel laureate, Milton Friedman, believed that consumers formed their opinions on inflation as adaptive expectations. It was like driving while looking in the rear view mirror. In other words, people would assume that inflation would be pretty much like it was last year.

Now let's say that the government sends rebate checks out an unexpected stimulates aggregate demand increasing prices. Workers now mistake the higher prices as a change in demand for their work and increase output. Workers then ask for higher wages and employers grant their request. The higher costs reduce aggregate supply and the economy equates at its natural rate of unemployment. Thus, in the short-run workers are fooled but not in the long-run.

Q. What does an economist do?

A. A lot in the short run, which amounts to nothing in the long run.


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