英文文献：The Effects of Monetary Policy on Prices in Malawi-货币政策对马拉维物价的影响
英文文献作者：Ronald Mangani
英文文献摘要：
Evidence on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is quite non-uniform, particularly across countries with different economic structures. Complications to theoretical propositions tend to arise when economies are less market-oriented and less sensitive to policy interventions, when monetary authorities are not adequately independent, or when market-based and administrative policy instruments are used concurrently. It is important, therefore, to appreciate the unique dynamics of the transmission mechanism in any jurisdiction, in order to understand and possibly predict the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. This study assessed the effects of monetary policy in Malawi by tracing the channels of its transmission mechanism, while recognizing several factors that characterize the economy: market imperfections, fiscal dominance and vulnerability to external shocks. Within the environment of vector autoregressive modelling, Granger-causality and block exogeneity tests as well as innovation accounting analyses were conducted to describe the dynamic interrelationships among monetary policy, financial variables and prices. The study established the lack of unequivocal evidence in support of a conventional channel ofthe monetary policy transmission mechanism, and found that the exchange rate was the most important variable in predicting prices. Therefore, the study recommends that authorities should be more concerned with imported cost-push inflation rather than demand-pull inflation. In the short term, pursuing a prudent exchange rate policy that recognizes the country’s precarious foreign reserve position could be critical in deepening domestic price stability. Beyond the short term, price stability could be sustained through the implementation of policies directed towards building a strong foreign exchange reserve base, as well as developing a sustainable approach to the country’s reliance on development assistance.

关于货币政策传导机制的证据非常不统一，特别是在不同经济结构的国家之间。当经济不那么以市场为导向，对政策干预不那么敏感时，当货币当局不够独立时，或者当以市场为基础的政策工具和行政政策工具同时使用时，理论主张的复杂性往往会出现。因此，要理解并可能预测货币政策的宏观经济效应，就必须认识到任何管辖区传导机制的独特动态。这项研究通过追踪其传导机制的渠道，评估了马拉维货币政策的影响，同时认识到该国经济的几个特征因素:市场不完善、财政主导地位和易受外部冲击。在向量自回归模型的环境下，进行grange -因果关系和block外生性检验以及创新会计分析，以描述货币政策、金融变量和价格之间的动态相互关系。研究发现，缺乏明确的证据支持货币政策传导机制的传统渠道，并发现汇率是预测价格的最重要变量。因此，该研究建议，中国政府应该更关注进口成本推动型通胀，而不是需求拉动型通胀。短期内，在认识到中国外汇储备状况不稳定的情况下，奉行谨慎的汇率政策，可能对深化国内价格稳定至关重要。在短期内，可以通过执行旨在建立一个强大的外汇储备基础的政策，以及制定一种可持续的办法来解决该国对发展援助的依赖，从而维持价格稳定。