The main focus on Tuesday was the turn-around in sterling which moved back below the 1.70 level on cable as the market reflected the mixed messages coming out of the Bank of England during testimony before parliament. There was not a killer line in the testimony that caused the pound to fall, rather the tone was less hawkish than the Governor’s previous speech earlier this month and the tone to the June MPC minutes. Despite this, it’s notable that yields on 2Y bonds actually fell, with only a small (1bp) rise in interest rate expectations on short sterling. As such, the price action suggest it was more profit-taking on recent sterling gains, rather than a fundamental re-assessment of rate hike prospects.

　　Elsewhere, USDJPY remains in a tight range, despite Abe sounding more bullish than ever on the prospects for successful structural reforms in the economy. This was ahead of the cabinet passing a number of reforms designed to help the economy escape from the deflationary trap that has engulfed it for the past two decades. These are to include cuts in corporation tax and other measures to free-up trade both internally and externally. The key question is if and when this will impact the Japanese currency, which depreciated rapidly during the early part of last year, but has since struggled for direction, especially in recent months. The caveat is to what extent the yen will benefit from safe haven flows in the near-term, given the unfolding events in Iraq which capped equity gains yesterday and also pushed up volatility (VIX) from the recent lows.

　　周二的主要焦点是英镑的转变，英镑美元方面英镑回到了1.70 之下，因为英格兰银行成员在国会的证词影响到了市场。证词中没有什么非常重要的话导致了英镑的下降，起作用的是这个月初英格兰英航总裁语气不那么强硬的发言，以及六月份货币委员会会议的内容。尽管如此，有一点值得注意的就是两年期债券的收益实际上下降了，而短期英镑的利率预期也出现了小幅（一个基点）上升。因此，价格的变动预示着近期英镑的上涨会带来更多收益，而不会导致完全重新估算加息的前景。

　　此外，美元日元仍在小范围内变动，尽管安倍比以前更加看好经济结构性改革的成功前景。随后，日本内阁通过了一系列改革措施以帮助经济逃离过去二十年一直处于其中的通缩陷阱。这些措施包括消减企业所得税，以及其他为了开放国内和国外贸易的措施。关键的问题就是，这些措施是否能影响到日元，以及何时会影响到日元。去年上半年日元已经在迅速的贬值，不过随后又挣扎了过来，特别最近几个月更是如此。值得警惕的是日元从近期的避险流动中获利的程度能有多高，因为伊拉克扑朔迷离的局势昨天让股票上涨封顶，并将流动性（VIX 流动性指数）从最近的低点推高了。

　　The dollar has remained on the backfoot after the weaker US GDP data seen earlier today, with the Q1 reading revised down further to -2.9% on an annualised basis. Data on durable goods was also weaker. The numbers did allow cable to touch the 1.70 level again, but profit-taking was seen into the close. This fits with the price action seen yesterday, which was more prone to profit-taking, even though interest rate markets were not really impacted by Carney’s comments earlier in the day. EURUSD has done slightly better in holding onto gains, having briefly pushed to the 1.3650 area.

　　今天美国的GDP 数据比较疲软，第一季度数据在年度基础上被继续调低到-2.9%；此后美元仍然维持守势。耐用品数据也是疲软。这些数据没能让英镑美元再次突破1.70，但收盘时出现获利行为。这种情况和昨天的更适合获利的价格变动比较相符，不过利率市场并没有真正受到当天Carney 言论的影响。欧元美元则表现得更好一些，直接推进到了1.3650 区域。