Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling-JEL-201351(4)
大萧条对宏观经济建模与预测的挑战与事实
Abstract
This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent
data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar
recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market
factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from
those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic
models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We
discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated
business cycle facts.

Journal of Economic Perspective，2013年第51期。