标题全称：中国港务行业研究报告

 

发布报告的机构： 德意志银行

 

 

报告发布时间：April 2008

 

报告页数：49页

 

文件格式：pdf

 

文件大小：740K

 

Executive Summary........................................................................... 3

Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3

Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3

Risks ........................................................................................................................................3

US slowdown concerns overdone ................................................... 4

Underperformance of Chinese port operators unjustified.........................................................4

DB expects a mild recession in the US.....................................................................................5

China’s port throughput growth appeared to move in sync with the US economy but… ........5

…the correlation is surprisingly low..........................................................................................5

Reducing reliance on the US market for Chinese exports.........................................................6

China port growth running ahead of exports’ ................................ 8

15% throughput CAGR over 2007-10F .....................................................................................8

Surging demand for low-cost outputs from China ..................................................................10

Sustained FDI inflow further affirms the outsourcing trend....................................................12

Exporting to emerging markets heating up.............................................................................12

Shipping co’s aggressive fleet expansion should give port operators long-term support.......13

Value re-emerged ............................................................................ 15

Chinese ports are more defensive than they appear to be .....................................................15

HK-listed port companies at attractive valuations ...................................................................15

Buy Dalian Port and COSCO Pacific; Sell China Merchants ....................................................16