以下是引用zzg343在2008-5-17 0:25:00的发言：你可真难伺候。。。。。。
看到楼主的贴，我愤怒于政府的失职与官僚，而且现在官方的网站均将此信息屏蔽。而你却能将黑的说成白的，看到此贴中你在4楼和7楼对于楼主的回复，以及你对政府职能部门的辩护，让我感觉你不作新闻发言人真是可惜了。
I defend for the government~~~~~~~~ OK what u said is up to you.
this article from WSJ, I hope you can read all the paragraph carefully, find out and understanding the view foreign expert. even them will not base on the unwonted behaviors to doing any forecastion on earthquake. all the world they use "may be, whether", not affirmative words. there is no ground to support the it can nicety use in forecastion on earthquake
Forty-eight hours before a devastating earthquake ripped through southwestern China, Jiang Weisong, director of the seismology bureau in the southern city of Nanning, worried that a tremor was imminent.
His reason? The cobras at nearby snake farms were behaving strangely.
'They'd stopped eating, and they were jumping in their cages,' says Mr. Jiang, who videotaped the unusual behavior in the days leading up to the earthquake. 'We believed there might be a big quake, but we weren't sure where it would be.'
Two days later, one of the worst earthquakes in three decades pummeled China's southwestern Sichuan province.
Despite decades of study, there are still no reliable systems for predicting earthquakes. But Mr. Jiang's research is reviving a question that has long occupied the gray zone between science and folklore: whether animals can pick up signals undetectable to humans to predict seismic events.
The theory has drawn skepticism, though not outright dismissal, from Western scientists. 'You can't just dismiss this out of hand,' says Joseph Kirschvink, a professor of geobiology at the California Institute of Technology. 'It's not unreasonable for these animals to have evolved seismic-escape responses in this fashion.' He believes more study is needed, but notes that snakes, as vertebrates, 'need navigation systems, and they're very sensitive to vibrations in the ground.'
In China, cobras are a restaurant delicacy raised on farms. In 2006, Mr. Jiang and his team in Nanning started an unusual earthquake-detection scheme that involves monitoring dozens of snake nests 24 hours a day for signs of erratic behavior prior to earthquakes. Mr. Jiang claims the snakes have already predicted numerous small tremors.
In 373 B.C., historians recorded that rats, snakes and weasels abandoned the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the city. After the December 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami, officials in Sri Lanka, Thailand and elsewhere reported that herds of antelope, elephants, and deer fled to hilltop safety just minutes before the wave hit, leading to a remarkably low number of animal casualties.
The Chinese have long given credence to the role of animals in predicting earthquakes. In 1975, Chinese authorities evacuated roughly a million people from the city of Haicheng in northeastern China ahead of a massive earthquake, in part based on the odd behavior of dozens of animals, including snakes that mysteriously emerged from hibernation despite freezing temperatures.
A later report by Chinese researchers noted strange animal behavior prior to the quake, including snakes 'found frozen on the road ... chickens refusing to enter the coop, pigs rooting at their fence, cows breaking their halters and escaping.' The report also note that 'rats appeared to behave as though drunk,' and police dogs 'refused to obey commands.'
The next year, after an earthquake in Tangshan killed hundreds of thousands, a United Nations report found that residents of one nearby county had managed to evacuate after they noticed nocturnal animals such as rats running around during the daytime.
In the wake of the recent quake, Chinese Web sites and newspapers are buzzing with new reports about strange animal behavior leading up to the disaster. One of the most unusual reports comes from Mianzhu, a southwestern city battered by the quake. Prior to the quake, thousands of toads flooded the city streets in an event so bizarre a local TV news team reported on it.
'Could this be a sign that a natural disaster is coming?' asked a Chinese newscaster on May 10th, two days before the quake struck. The video is posted on YouTube.
David Bickford, a toad expert at the National University of Singapore, described the footage as 'very, very strange,' but says it's likely a 'freakish coincidence.' He says toads sometimes travel en masse to breeding sites, or emerge in groups when large numbers of young are born at the same time. Nonetheless, he acknowledges that 'frogs and toads communicate using sound, and some may be sensitive enough to detect vibrations in the earth.'
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