高华：日本经济分析.2008.1

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The ongoing stock market plunge is
exacerbating recession concerns. Our
Financial Conditions Index (FCI), continues
to rise and move erratically against the
backdrop of the stock market decline and yen
appreciation.
Recession concerns are mounting while
speculation is growing more widespread that
the BOJ will begin easing monetary policy
again given scant prospects for any
significant stimulus from the fiscal policy
side. The overnight index swap (OIS) market
has already factored in almost 70%
probability that the BOJ will cut interest rates
by 25 basis points by mid-year.
There is still a deep-rooted sense that even if
the BOJ were to begin easing monetary
policy, this would have a limited reflationary
effect. To the extent that inflation has begun
to pick up, however, this will make it easier
for real policy rates to decline into negative
territory than was the case under the zero
interest rate policy and quantitative easing,
when there was limited room for real rates to
decline amid a prolonged deflationary phase.
Negative real rate policy, in general, may
prove to be an effective tool for reflating
asset prices while containing yen appreciation
pressure.