The Asia Investigator
Who’s in Charge – the Market, Earnings or the Consensus?

发表机构：花旗                 发表时间：27 May 2008

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The Asia Investigator
Who’s in Charge – the Market, Earnings or the Consensus?
 Asia ex: Markets are supposed to lead; not so in Asia — The common belief is that
stock markets are lead indicators. In Asia, though, they do a pretty poor job at
discounting the future direction of EPS. Markets driven by a high percentage of
retail investors seldom lead; reaction is triggered by what has been seen on TV,
read in the press or heard on the grapevine. All of which is post the event. Page 3
 India: Owning India Inc.: foreigners flee? — Latest data show foreign institutional
ownership of the Indian corporate universe dipped sharply in the first quarter of
the year. FII (FI+ADR+GDR) share of the BSE500 now stands at 17.8%, down
nearly 2ppt from Dec2007, and almost back to June 2005 levels. Page 16
 Korea: oil shock: downside risks to margin expectations — We see the biggest
threats to Korean stock valuations in potential disappointment on margins due to
high expectations (currently consensus expects rising OPM until 3Q) and surging
oil prices (WTI: $133.2/bbl as of May 21 vs. consensus estimate of $97/bbl for
2008). Page 26
 Fun With Flows: downward momentum intact — EPFR Global reported that inflows
to offshore Asian funds fell for the fourth week to US$267m versus US$1.5bn in
the 2nd last week of April. Percentage wise, inflows decelerated from 5% weekon-
week to 50% in the last two weeks. The seasonal weakness for flows to Asian
funds is underway. Page 39
 Market Sentiment — Our risk-love indicator for this region continued to edge
higher thanks to improved risk appetite in Hong Kong and Taiwan over the last two
weeks. By contrast, Malaysia's risk-love has fallen further and is back to the lows
experienced in 2001 and 2003. This has historically coincided with higher equity
prices in the next 12 months. Page 40

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-5-29 23:55:40编辑过]