<p><span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">普林斯顿大学经济学者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> Burton Malkiel </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">写过一本股票投资的著作《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">A Random Walk Down Wall Street</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">》。中译《漫步华尔街》有失原文之妙。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Random Walk </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">是多义词，按字解固然人人看懂，然这个词亦是一数学术语，中文通常译作随机漫步，是现代概率﹝</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">probability</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">﹞中一门重要课题随机过程</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">
                        </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">﹝</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">stochastic process</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">﹞的一种﹝</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Yan Zhang </span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/review/R1PHBUS511HKJC/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><font color="#0000ff">在亚马逊写书评</font></span></a></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">道</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> Karlin and Taylor </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">的《</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">A Second Course in Stochastic Processes</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">》是进军华尔街必读之作﹞。中译只作漫步，有失原文的多义性。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><br/><br/></span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Malkiel </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">主旨明确</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">：</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Investors would be far better off buying and holding an index fund than attempting to buy and sell individual securities or actively managed mutual funds</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">」。简言之，股票市场是随机的，技术分析不一定可靠。他在书的末章总结：「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Investing is a bit like lovemaking. Ultimately, it is really an art requiring a certain talent and the presence of a mysterious force called luck</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">」。有时运气更重要。假如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> Malkiel </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">论点成立，为何有些投资策略看似很成功？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Malkiel </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">辩称那是统计学的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> outlier</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體;"><br/><br/></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">最</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">
                        </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">跟本的问题：股价升跌是否随机、无迹可循？假如是随机，升跌则无因。那有可能吗？还是影响股价的变量太多，人类算不尽？但人类算不尽，并不表示无迹可循。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">
                        </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">假如不是随机，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Brownian motion</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Wiener process</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">randomised clinical trial </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">算不算随机？假如不算，有什么算随机？假如没有，随机这个词还有意义吗？我看假如辩称</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> Brownian motion </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">不算随机，只是现时人类知识水平有限未能预测此运动，似有概念换转之嫌。以掷骰子为例，假如有足够物理数据，我们可以预测骰子掷地后那个面向上，那掷骰子</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">
                        </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">不算随机。但日常生活中我们不会或不可量度骰子的物理数据，并视掷骰子结果为随机。辩称掷骰子不算随机，是扭曲掷骰子一词的日常理解。</span></span></p><p><span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"></span></span></p><p><span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="; FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><a href="http://theprincipia.blogspot.com/2008/06/20-diary.html">http://theprincipia.blogspot.com/2008/06/20-diary.html</a></span></span></p>