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论坛 世界经济与国际贸易 八区 世界经济与国际贸易
2218 3
2014-10-30
The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in the dispersion of producer- level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the effect of exogenous first- and second-moment shocks to producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogenous producers and an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause endogenous fluctuations in producer-level dispersion by reallocating production internationally, while second-moment shocks lead to increases in trade relative to GDP in recessions. Empirically, using detailed product-level data in the motor vehicle industry and industry-level data of U.S. manufacturers, we find evidence that international reallocation is indeed important for understanding cross-industry variation in cyclical patterns of measured dispersion.



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2014-11-2 18:33:57
紧跟前沿啊 你做DSGE么?
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2014-11-3 08:34:30
阿袋 发表于 2014-11-2 18:33
紧跟前沿啊  你做DSGE么?
不做,略懂一点点!
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2014-11-8 23:05:04
感谢楼主的分享!~
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