How Low Can They Go?...........................................................................................................................................5
Department Stores: Examining Our Estimates...........................................................................................................6
Macy’s ................................................................................................................................................................6
J.C. Penney .......................................................................................................................................................10
Kohl’s................................................................................................................................................................13
Nordstrom .........................................................................................................................................................16
Saks...................................................................................................................................................................21
Sears Holdings ..................................................................................................................................................25
Discounters: Examining Our Estimates....................................................................................................................28
BJ’s Wholesale..................................................................................................................................................28
Costco ...............................................................................................................................................................32
Dollar Tree Stores .............................................................................................................................................36
Family Dollar ....................................................................................................................................................39
Target ................................................................................................................................................................42
Wal-Mart...........................................................................................................................................................45
Interest Rates and Retail Stock Price Performance ..................................................................................................51
Company Models.....................................................................................................................................................55
Macy’s ..............................................................................................................................................................56
J.C. Penney .......................................................................................................................................................60
Kohl’s Corporation ...........................................................................................................................................64
Nordstrom, Inc. .................................................................................................................................................68
Saks, Inc............................................................................................................................................................72
Sears Holding Corporation ...............................................................................................................................76
BJ’s Wholesale Club, Inc..................................................................................................................................82
Costco Wholesale Corp.....................................................................................................................................86
Dollar Tree Stores .............................................................................................................................................90
Family Dollar Stores .........................................................................................................................................94
Target Corp. ......................................................................................................................................................98
Wal-Mart Stores..............................................................................................................................................102
Appendices ...........................................................................................................................................................107
Appendix 1. Department Stores’ One-Year Forward P/E Ratios Since 1990 — Annual...............................108
Appendix 2. Department Stores’ Two-Year Forward P/E Ratios Since 1990 — Annual ..............................109
Appendix 3. Department Stores’ One-Year Forward P/E Ratios During Prior Recessions — Monthly........110
Appendix 4. Department Stores’ Two-Year Forward P/E Ratios During Prior Recessions — Monthly .......111
Appendix 5. Discounters’ One-Year Forward P/E Ratios Since 1990 — Annual..........................................112
Appendix 6. Discounters’ Two-Year Forward P/E Ratios Since 1990 — Annual .........................................113
Appendix 7. Discounters’ One-Year Forward P/E Ratios During Prior Recessions — Monthly...................114
Appendix 8. Discounters’ Two-Year Forward P/E Ratios During Prior Recessions — Monthly..................115
Appendix 9. Summary of Historical Retail One-Year Forward P/E Ratios....................................................116
Appendix 10. Summary of Historical Retail Two-Year Forward P/E Ratios..................................................116

FEBRUARY 2008

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