Gone for good? Subsidies with export share requirements in China: 2002-2013
Abstract

[size=12.8000001907349px]This paper presents a simple model of subsidies with export share requirements (ESR) in a heterogeneous firm environment. A two-country general equilibrium version of the model with a single 100% ESR is calibrated using firm-level data from the 2002 wave of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey collected by the World Bank for China. The calibrated model is used to gauge the change in subsidies with ESR that is consistent with the fall in the share of ‘pure exporters’, firms exporting all their output, observed in China, from 25.7% in 2002 to 11.1% in 2013. Our results indicate that a 6.9% reduction in the ad-valorem subsidy rate available to firms that export all their output is consistent with the observed fall in their share of exporting firms. Expenditure in subsidies (as a share of value-added) falls by 66% and welfare in China increases by 1.76% while real income in the rest of the world falls by 0.59%.

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Trapped factors and China’s impact on global growth[size=12.8000001907349px]

Bloom, Nicholas, Romer, Paul, Terry, Stephen and Van Reenen, John (2014) Trapped factors and China’s impact on global growth. CEP Discussion Papers, CEPDP1261. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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          Projecting Meat and Cereals Demand for China Based on a Meta-Analysis of Income Elasticities

Abstract:         There are many projections for China’s food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice, and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases, except for wheat, which increases. Taking this into account, differences between consumption projections based on time-varying income elasticities and values based on constant elasticities are substantial in quantities and increase over time.

Identifying the Flypap er Effect in the Presence of Spatial Dep endence:Evidence from Education in China’s Counties


ABSTRACT In the context of China without a median voter system, this study examines
whether the “flypaper effect”, an unconditional lump-sum grant from the upper governments to
the county governments increases spending in a greater proportion than an equivalent rise in
local income, holds true in China. Using China’s county-level education data during 2007, the
models have been estimated using a spatial econometric technique that accounts for spatial
interaction behavior on public education expenditure across local governments. We find that, in
the presence of spatial interdependence, there is no evidence of a “flypaper effect” when
different spatial weighting schemes and the endogeneity problem of education grants are
accounted for. Rather, the “anti-flypaper effect” is found. Important policy implications are
drawn for China’s fiscal decentralization reform.

Political Uncertainty and Household Savings.

Despite macroeconomic evidence pointing to a negative aggregate consumption response due to political uncertainty, few papers have used microeconomic panel data to analyze how households adjust their consumption after an uncertainty shock. We study household savings and expenditure adjustment from an unexpected, large-scale and rapidly evolving political shock that occurred largely in May 1989 in Beijing, China. Using monthly micro panel data, we present evidence that a surge in political uncertainty resulted in significant temporary increases in savings among urban households in China. Households responded mainly by reducing semi-durable expenditure and frequency of major durable adjustment. The uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, and more socially advantaged households. We interpret our findings using existing models of precautionary behavior. By focusing on time variation in uncertainty, our identification strategy avoids many of the potential problems in empirical studies of precautionary savings such as self-selection and life-cycle effects.

Political Connections, Discriminatory Credit Constraint and Business Cycle

This paper builds a banking DSGE model based on endogenous loan to value ratios, taking the different relationship between different types of enterprises and banks into account. Due to the political connections between the bank and enterprises, loan to value ratio for favored enterprises (e.g. state-owned enterprises) is endogenously higher than that for non-favored enterprises (e.g. private enterprises), which is called discriminatory credit constraint in this paper. Compared to non-discriminatory credit constraint, we find that discriminatory credit constraint can further amplify the impact of negative technology shocks on output, and reduce the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy. Empirical evidence from China industrial firms’ data supports our conclusion.
Keywords:        Discriminatory Credit Constraint, Political Connections, Financial Accelerator

Does better rail access improve homeowners’ happiness?: evidence based on micro surveys in Beijing
Wu, Wenjie (2013) Does better rail access improve homeowners’ happiness?: evidence based on micro surveys in Beijing. SERC Discussion Papers, SERCDP0134. Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC), London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.


Development of urban transport infrastructures is a key policy focus---particularly in countries like China which have experienced fast urbanisation over the past decade. While existing studies provide marginal values for rail access on the real estate market, little is known about the consequences of local public goods improvements for homeowners’ subjective wellbeing using reported happiness data. This paper uses a difference-in-difference method to empirically measure the impact of rail access on homeowners’ happiness. My identification strategy takes advantage of micro happiness survey data conducted before-and-after the opening of new rail stations in 2008 Beijing. I deal with the potential concern about the endogeneity in sorting effects by focusing on “stayers” and using non-market (fang gai) housings with pre-determined locations. I find the significantly heterogeneity in the effects from better rail access on homeowners’ happiness with respect to different dimensions of residential environment. The welfare estimates suggest that better rail access provided substantial benefits to homeowners’ happiness, but these benefits have strong social-spatial differentiations. These findings add to the evidence that transport improvement has an important role to play in influencing local residents’ subjective wellbeing.

Who gains from credit granted between firms? Evidence from inter-corporate loan announcements made in China

Who gains from inter-corporate credit? To answer this question we investigate the reactions of the stock prices of both the issuing and receiving firms to the announcements of 719 inter-corporate loans that took place between 2005 and 2012 in China. We find that the average abnormal return for the issuers of inter-corporate loans is significantly negative, whereas the corresponding return for those firms receiving credit is positive. Investors may worry that issuing firms may have run out of other worthwhile projects to finance, while at the same time they may view credit-receiving firms as being certified as worthy borrowers. The issuance of intra-group loans, especially those with higher interest rates, is associated with lower returns overall since such loans may signal a spreading of financial distress to the rest of the group. After issuing inter-corporate loans, firms are also found to have lower accounting performance, which confirms the aforementioned signaling interpretation.
Keywords:        entrusted loan; inter-corporate loan; credit misallocation; certification

‘Greater Chinese’ global production networks in the Middle East: the rise of the Jordanian garment industry

The expansion of ‘Greater Chinese’ capital from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan into other parts of the developing world is increasingly noted. It is especially prominent in sub-Saharan Africa where Greater Chinese investments, firms and workers are found across a wide range of activities, from the extractive commodity sectors, to infrastructure projects, agriculture and manufacturing. One region where Greater Chinese investment is less well studied is the Middle East. This article focuses on the case of Jordan. Jordan has rapidly emerged as an important supplier of apparel to the United States, a consequence of a distinct preferential trade agreement. The article charts the ways in which this preferential trade agreement has stimulated the shifts of Greater Chinese garment manufacturers to Jordan. Using a global production networks (GPN) framework, and drawing on primary and secondary evidence, it assesses the dynamics behind Greater Chinese investments into Jordan; it also explores the ways in which Greater Chinese garment producers operating in Jordan organize their supply chains and are linked into the global garments GPNs. Finally, it considers the relationship between such capital flows and the influx of Asian migrant workers into the Jordanian export garment sector.

The ICT Landscape in Brazil, India and China

Abstract:         The Information Society Unit at IPTS (European Commission) has been investigating the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector and ICT R&D in Asia for several years. This research exercise led to three reports, written by national experts, on China, India and Taiwan, each one including a dataset and a technical annex. This report offers a synthesis on three out of the four BRIC countries (Brazil, India, Russia, China). The report describes, for each of the three countries (Brazil, India, China), its ICT sector, and gives a company level assessment. It also analyses Indian ICT R&D strategies, and assesses the innovation model. In 2010, BRIC countries accounted for 13% of global demand, with spending of about

Breaking the "Iron Rice Bowl" and Precautionary Savings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform

We use China's large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the late 1990s as a natural experiment to identify and quantify the importance of precautionary saving for wealth accumulation. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed the same job security as government employees. Since the reform, over 35 million SOE workers have been laid off, although government employees kept their "iron rice bowl." The change in unemployment risk for SOE workers relative to that of government employees before and after the reform provides a clean identification of income uncertainty that helps us estimate the importance of precautionary saving. In our estimation, we correct a self-selection bias in occupational choice and disentangle the effects of uncertainty from pessimistic outlook. We obtain evidence that precautionary savings account for at least one-third of the wealth accumulation for SOE workers between 1995 and 2002.

Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China

Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as export - ers may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with sup - plied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields a better understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.

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Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity

We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output over 15 months for a panel of 98 manufacturing workers at a plant located in an industrial city in Hebei province, north China. Long-term workers earn piece-rate wages, with no base pay or minimum pay, for homogeneous tasks performed over fixed 8-hour shifts. Over the sample period, ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) mass concentrations measured at an outdoor air monitor located 2 km from the plant ranged between 10 and 773 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3, 8-hour means), variation that is an order of magnitude larger than what is observed in the rich world today. We document large reductions in productivity, of the order of 15%, over the first 200 μg/m3 rise in PM2.5 concentrations, with the drop leveling off for further increases in fine-particle pollution. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that labor productivity across 190 Chinese cities could rise by on average 4% per year were the distributions of hourly PM2.5 truncated at 25 μg/m3. We also find reduced product quality as pollution rises. Our model allows for selection into work attendance, though we do not find particle pollution to be a meaningful determinant of non-attendance, which is very low in our labor setting. Subsequent research should verify the external validity of our findings.

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Migration Externalities in Chinese Cities

We analyse the impact of internal migration in China on natives' labour market outcomes. We find evidence of a large positive correlation of the city share of migrants with natives' wages. Using different sets of control variables and instruments suggests that the effect is causal. The large total migrant impact (+10% when one moves from the first to the third quartile of the migrant variable distribution) arises from gains due to complementarity with natives in the production function (+6.4%), and from gains due to agglomeration economies (+3.3%). Finally, we find some evidence of a stronger effect for skilled natives than for unskilled, as expected from theory. Overall, our findings support large nominal wage gains that can be expected from further migration and urbanisation in China.

Migration Externalities in Chinese Cities

We analyse the impact of internal migration in China on natives' labour market outcomes. We find evidence of a large positive correlation of the city share of migrants with natives' wages. Using different sets of control variables and instruments suggests that the effect is causal. The large total migrant impact (+10% when one moves from the first to the third quartile of the migrant variable distribution) arises from gains due to complementarity with natives in the production function (+6.4%), and from gains due to agglomeration economies (+3.3%). Finally, we find some evidence of a stronger effect for skilled natives than for unskilled, as expected from theory. Overall, our findings support large nominal wage gains that can be expected from further migration and urbanisation in China.

Regional Variation of the Minimum Wages in China

This paper analyzes the regional variation of minimum wage in China. We first introduce the institutional background of China's minimum wage policy, and then describe the regional variation of the minimum wages using detailed minimum wage data since the late 1990s. Large regional variation exists in the period studied, and the regional variation has been declining since the late 1990s. Economic factors, including GDP, economic structure, consumption level, are the main determinants for the large regional variation in the minimum wages. There is weak evidence suggesting that the regional variation is influenced by political factors, such as competition of local officials.
Keywords:        minimum wage, regional variation, China

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