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- Looking into 2014 and 2015 we expect broad-based acceleration in global
growth towards trend, at a gradual pace.
- We forecast global growth to come in at 3.7% in 2014 which is slightly
above consensus but just below trend. In 2015 we see further acceleration
to 3.9%, with many economies finally expanding at their respective trends.
- In terms of broad themes, we see Developed Markets (DM)—particularly the
US—set to spearhead the improvement in growth momentum.
- After a year of growing at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis,
we believe the US could deliver above-trend growth in 2014 and 2015.
- Despite moderately higher global interest rates, the turnaround in the global
cycle should allow many Growth and Emerging Markets (Growth and EM) to
gradually break out of the sluggish spell of the past two years.
- However, in our view, none of the eight Growth Markets will be able to
reach their trend growth in 2014. Mexico could, perhaps, be one exception.
- As structural growth rates decline in many of these economies, the
importance of reform aimed at boosting productivity will come further
into focus.
- While global inflation is still expected to remain subdued on average,
inflationary pressures in some Growth and EM will make policy trade-offs
more difficult.
- The combination of accommodative central bank policies and an improving
growth picture should support risky assets in 2014.
- We believe equities are best positioned to perform well in this stage of the
cycle, driven by better corporate earnings. But it could be another difficult
year for sovereign debt, particularly in DM.
- We see the main risks to our views concentrated around three key areas:
(1) US growth weakness; (2) tighter-than-expected US monetary policy;
(3) stress in China’s financial system.