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UBS research report - 16 Sept 2008, 100 pages:

Don't catch a falling knif

Tougher economic outlook
The economic environment within which the China property sector operates has
changed in 2008, for the worse. Softening investment and exports will likely be a
drag on income and consumption growth, slowing any recovery in the currently
consolidating property market.  

More home price falls in September/October sales season
Challenging affordability and weak sentiment, coupled with a flurry of project
launches by cash-strapped developers in the September/October sales season, could
result in further price declines. High-end housing may not be immune due to low
rental yields and a stronger US dollar.  

Sector still faces high 2009 earnings risk
We estimate that for every 5% decline in price, developer NAVs and earnings
would come down 6-7% and 6-17%, respectively. Given a likely further decline in
selling prices, we think consensus 2009 earnings estimates could face further
downgrades.   Initiate coverage of CMP and Gemdale with Sell, and Poly with Neutral

squarekiss  金钱 +30  好文章 2008-9-17 15:54:02