malmquist分解结果辨析！技术进步指标绝大部分小于1，如何解决啊？

龙太子2008

5602

收藏 2015-05-29

这是部分的分解结果：
MALMQUIST INDEX SUMMARY

year =    2

firm effch  techch pech sech tfpch

   1 0.967 1.012 1.009 0.959 0.979
   2 0.992 0.993 1.000 0.992 0.986
   3 1.007 0.985 1.007 1.000 0.992
   4 0.961 0.929 0.963 0.998 0.893
   5 0.981 0.990 0.987 0.993 0.971
   6 1.029 0.929 1.018 1.011 0.955
   7 1.011 0.961 1.010 1.001 0.971
   8 1.000 0.959 1.000 1.000 0.959
   9 1.000 1.018 1.000 1.000 1.018
10 0.979 0.991 0.999 0.980 0.970
11 0.982 0.991 0.982 0.999 0.972
12 1.000 0.914 1.000 1.000 0.914
13 0.981 0.929 0.974 1.007 0.911
14 0.995 0.990 0.995 1.000 0.985
15 0.976 0.990 0.999 0.978 0.966
16 0.967 0.929 0.962 1.005 0.898
17 0.973 0.929 0.970 1.004 0.904
18 1.023 0.928 1.053 0.972 0.950
19 0.975 0.991 1.000 0.975 0.967
20 0.978 0.928 0.976 1.002 0.908
21 1.017 0.928 1.000 1.017 0.944
22 1.035 0.928 1.018 1.017 0.960
23 1.000 0.881 1.000 1.000 0.881
24 0.975 0.979 0.978 0.997 0.955
25 1.018 0.934 1.018 1.000 0.950
26 1.030 0.929 1.000 1.030 0.956
27 0.959 0.929 1.000 0.959 0.891
28 0.963 0.992 0.979 0.983 0.955

mean 0.992 0.956 0.996 0.995 0.948

year =    3

firm effch  techch pech sech tfpch

   1 0.980 1.038 0.983 0.997 1.017
   2 0.998 1.066 1.000 0.998 1.064
   3 0.931 1.072 0.931 1.000 0.998
   4 0.952 0.993 0.961 0.991 0.945
   5 0.927 1.071 0.954 0.971 0.993
   6 1.014 0.962 1.000 1.014 0.976
   7 0.922 1.019 0.918 1.005 0.940
   8 1.000 1.034 1.000 1.000 1.034
   9 0.966 1.031 1.000 0.966 0.996
10 0.937 1.069 0.988 0.948 1.002
11 0.911 1.070 0.913 0.998 0.976
12 1.000 0.922 1.000 1.000 0.922
13 0.944 0.990 0.947 0.996 0.934
14 0.894 1.071 0.900 0.993 0.957
15 0.920 1.071 0.941 0.977 0.985
16 0.954 0.980 0.965 0.988 0.935
17 0.979 0.975 0.975 1.005 0.955
18 1.022 0.960 1.063 0.961 0.981
19 0.911 1.069 0.928 0.983 0.974
20 0.967 0.953 0.972 0.995 0.921
21 1.012 0.951 1.000 1.012 0.962
22 0.998 0.951 1.002 0.996 0.949
23 1.000 0.912 1.000 1.000 0.912
24 0.941 1.063 0.960 0.980 1.000
25 0.909 1.003 0.948 0.959 0.911
26 0.975 0.983 1.000 0.975 0.959
27 0.937 0.990 1.000 0.937 0.928
28 1.038 1.068 1.031 1.007 1.108

mean 0.961 1.011 0.974 0.987 0.972

year =    4

firm effch  techch pech sech tfpch

   1 1.005 1.007 0.999 1.006 1.012
   2 0.993 1.007 1.000 0.993 0.999
   3 0.995 1.007 0.994 1.001 1.001
   4 0.976 0.949 0.985 0.991 0.926
   5 0.985 1.007 0.992 0.994 0.992
   6 0.987 0.958 1.000 0.987 0.946
   7 1.006 0.965 1.008 0.998 0.971
   8 1.000 0.976 1.000 1.000 0.976
   9 1.023 1.007 1.000 1.023 1.029
10 0.996 1.007 0.990 1.006 1.002
11 0.978 1.007 0.979 1.000 0.985
12 1.000 0.954 1.000 1.000 0.954
13 0.980 0.950 0.986 0.994 0.930
14 0.995 1.007 0.996 0.999 1.001
15 0.991 1.007 0.984 1.007 0.997
16 1.000 0.952 1.007 0.994 0.953
17 0.979 0.953 0.982 0.997 0.934
18 0.981 0.958 0.966 1.015 0.940
19 0.974 1.007 0.955 1.020 0.980
20 1.000 0.960 1.007 0.993 0.960
21 1.009 0.961 1.000 1.009 0.970
22 0.925 0.961 0.932 0.993 0.889
23 1.000 0.932 1.000 1.000 0.932
24 1.020 1.007 1.016 1.004 1.027
25 0.981 0.948 0.988 0.994 0.931
26 0.995 0.952 1.000 0.995 0.947
27 0.986 0.949 1.000 0.986 0.936
28 0.977 1.007 0.990 0.987 0.984

mean 0.990 0.977 0.991 0.999 0.967

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ALMQUIST INDEX SUMMARY OF ANNUAL MEANS

year effch  techch pech sech tfpch

   2 0.992 0.956 0.996 0.995 0.948
   3 0.961 1.011 0.974 0.987 0.972
   4 0.990 0.977 0.991 0.999 0.967
   5 0.991 0.958 0.990 1.002 0.950
   6 0.981 1.000 0.993 0.988 0.981
   7 0.984 1.013 0.986 0.998 0.997
   8 1.144 0.905 1.086 1.054 1.036
   9 1.026 0.956 1.013 1.013 0.980
10 1.030 0.977 1.020 1.010 1.006
11 1.024 1.006 1.003 1.021 1.031
12 1.037 0.906 1.018 1.018 0.939
13 1.003 1.014 1.003 0.999 1.017
14 0.994 1.029 0.992 1.002 1.023
15 1.017 0.948 1.006 1.010 0.964
16 1.013 0.944 1.002 1.012 0.957

mean 1.012 0.973 1.005 1.007 0.984

全要素生产率指标和技术进步指标小于1，这说明这些年来技术进步退化了，技术越来越倒退。这与主流的文献、实际情况来看，不是很符合啊。
【说明：变量有三个，一个产出，两个投入（资本和劳动）；产出和资本存量均按1952年=100 平减为实际值】

请问问题出在哪里呢？