摩根斯坦利-深度剖析中国经济-20081118(46p)

China
A Q&A on the Fiscal Stimulus Package     4
Further Growth Forecast Downgrade Amid a Deeper Global Recession 7
An Aggressive Stimulus Package Announced 11
How Much Can Be Expected From Fiscal Stimulus? 12
Worst-ever PMI Readings 15
Sharper-than-expected Slowdown in 3Q08 on Destocking 16
Policy Priorities in 4Q08 Announced 20
Hong Kong
Officially in Recession; Worst Is Yet to Come 21
Further GDP Downgrade to Reflect G3 Weakness 23
Facing a Steeper and Deeper Slowdown 24
A Policy Address Aimed at Restoring Confidence 27
100bp Cut in Discount Window Base Rate 28
Taiwan
Mild Recession but Negative Growth Not Likely 29
Running Ahead in this Rate cut Race 31