key summary

1.The intensification of the financial crisis has
pushed economic growth off the cliff.
2. We are now forecasting US growth of -1.6%
next year, eurozone at about -1% and Japanese
at -0.9%. Global growth is projected at a bit
above 1% – qualifying as a global recession.
3.Inflationary forces are fading. Deflation will
be the worry in the future, especially in the US.
4. We expect the Fed funds rate to be cut to
0.5%, in December. The BoJ will stay pat at 0.3%
but we expect the BoE to cut to 1% by February
with the ECB reaching the same mark mid-year.
5.There will be a deluge of bad news in
coming months. Already-low bond yields can
fall further.
6.The market likely to see the most bond yield
action is Europe. We expect a big steepening in
the eurozone curve and a substantial
outperformance relative to the US.
7.We continue to favour the USD over the
EUR, but we like the JPY even more.

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-12-2 10:13:34编辑过]

wesker1999  金钱 +20  奖励 2008-12-2 11:02:25