2009年有色金属研究报告

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收藏 2008-12-05

一、金属价格处于下行周期.......................................................................................................................................................1
（一）2009 年金属需求增速大幅下降...............................................................................................................................1
（二）减产致使供应增长缓慢...........................................................................................................................................2
（三）供求过剩各金属价格全面下跌..............................................................................................................................4
二、2009 年有色企业盈利能力大幅下滑................................................................................................................................16
（一）有色金属公司毛利率大幅下降..............................................................................................................................16
（二）净资产收益率降低还受累于资产周转率下降......................................................................................................17
三、估值：短期仍有压力长期价值渐显................................................................................................................................18
（一）业绩快速回落.........................................................................................................................................................18
（二）09 年盈利能力大幅下降........................................................................................................................................18
（三）短期估值仍高于国际水平.....................................................................................................................................19
（四）评级：中性.............................................................................................................................................................22
四、投资策略：防御为先机会来自估值恢复........................................................................................................................23
（一）防御为先.................................................................................................................................................................23
（二）机会来自估值水平恢复.........................................................................................................................................24
五、催化剂.................................................................................................................................................................................24
（一）经济先行指标企稳.................................................................................................................................................24
（二）行业整合.................................................................................................................................................................24
六、风险.....................................................................................................................................................................................24
（一）全球经济表现好于预期.........................................................................................................................................24
（二）减产范围和时间大幅超预期.................................................................................................................................24
七、重点公司.............................................................................................................................................................................25
（一）云海金属（002182）：成本优势+产业链一体化..................................................................................................25
（二）中国铝业（601600）：业绩回升尚需时日............................................................................................................28
（三）江西铜业（600362）：景气回落着眼未来..........................................................................................................32
（四）中金黄金（600489）：业绩增长仍受限于金价、铜价下行................................................................................37