一、金属价格处于下行周期 ....................................................................................................................................................... 1
（一）2009 年金属需求增速大幅下降 ............................................................................................................................... 1
（二）减产致使供应增长缓慢 ........................................................................................................................................... 2
（三）供求过剩 各金属价格全面下跌 .............................................................................................................................. 4
二、2009 年有色企业盈利能力大幅下滑 ................................................................................................................................ 16
（一）有色金属公司毛利率大幅下降 .............................................................................................................................. 16
（二）净资产收益率降低还受累于资产周转率下降 ...................................................................................................... 17
三、估值：短期仍有压力 长期价值渐显 ............................................................................................................................... 18
（一）业绩快速回落 ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
（二）09 年盈利能力大幅下降 ........................................................................................................................................ 18
（三）短期估值仍高于国际水平 ..................................................................................................................................... 19
（四）评级：中性............................................................................................................................................................. 22
四、投资策略：防御为先 机会来自估值恢复 ........................................................................................................................ 23
（一）防御为先................................................................................................................................................................. 23
（二）机会来自估值水平恢复 ......................................................................................................................................... 24
五、催化剂 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
（一）经济先行指标企稳 ................................................................................................................................................. 24
（二）行业整合................................................................................................................................................................. 24
六、风险 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
（一）全球经济表现好于预期 ......................................................................................................................................... 24
（二）减产范围和时间大幅超预期 ................................................................................................................................. 24
七、重点公司 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
（一）云海金属（002182）：成本优势+产业链一体化 .................................................................................................. 25
（二）中国铝业（601600）：业绩回升尚需时日 ............................................................................................................ 28
（三）江西铜业（600362）：景气回落 着眼未来 .......................................................................................................... 32
（四）中金黄金（600489）：业绩增长仍受限于金价、铜价下行 ................................................................................ 37
插图目录 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
表格目录 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 43

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