Bottom in 1H09, recovery to be slow

Lowering 2009 industry forecast towards bear case
We lower our 2009 semiconductor billings scenario from down 10% to down 23%.
Integrated circuits (ICs) billings should decline 21% YoY, which moves us closer
to our previously published low-case scenario of -26%. The revisions again reflect
our more negative assessment of global end-demand in 2009, which could be
exacerbated by pricing pressure from excess capacity/players.
Surprisingly weak demand might spill over into 2H09
November SIA numbers (31 December) corroborate Taiwan’s semiconductor
device data (10 December) that semiconductor revenue should drop 25% QoQ
and 16% YoY. That drop is not only inventory reduction by electronics companies
but also reflects eroding demand, in our view. Our checks indicate that
semiconductor companies have further lowered their forecasts for foundry/OSAT
in 1Q09 and 2Q09, which does not bode well for the upcoming earnings season
or for prospects for a 2Q09 recovery...

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-6 22:11:55编辑过]