2009 Credit Market Outlook: On the sidelines until
the economy turns
• We think generic US credit spreads have priced in a close to worst scenario,
especially in the investment grade cash sector. But we also see little
prospect of a sustainable rally in 1H 2009, and perhaps for much of 2009.
• Credit spreads will not tighten much until the recession has largely run its
course and investors understand when and at what level default rates are
likely to peak.
• We think default rates will peak in the 10 -12% range, but it could go higher if
the recession persists into 2H 2009. We expect downward migration from
triple-Bs to high yield will accelerate to the 15% - 20% level or higher. This
risk is not fully priced in yet at the sector level.
• The financial system will likely come under further stress as developments of
the past quarter feed through to consumer and business portfolios. We
expect the Obama administration will move aggressively to stabilize the
system but this process remains fraught with uncertainty.
• Even if the banking system is re-stabilized, we don’t think it can resume
prudent lending activity until banks receive significant additional capital
infusions. It will be difficult to mount a sustained economic recovery or credit
rally until this happens.
• There is no reason for investors to rush into credit. We recommend gradually
accumulating quality names and watching to see how the Obama
administration approaches the economy and financial crisis.