摩根大通：美国生物技术行业研究报告2009年1月

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收藏 2009-01-15

Biotechnology The Art of Setting Price Targets for SMid Biotechs Small/Mid Cap Biotechnology Cory KasimovAC (1-212) 622-5266 <a href="mailto:cory.w.kasimov@jpmorgan.com">cory.w.kasimov@jpmorgan.com</a> Mona Ashiya, Ph.D. (1-212) 622-5711 <a href="mailto:mona.x.ashiya@jpmorgan.com">mona.x.ashiya@jpmorgan.com</a> J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. Summary Ratings and Estimates Company Price Rating Price Target PT End Date Metric Current FYE Next FYE Alkermes, Inc. ($) 10.73 OW ($) 16.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) 1.49 ($) 0.21 prior ($) 0.00 Sep-02 ($) 0.20 ($) 0.07 Amylin Pharmaceuticals ($) 11.42 N ($) 13.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (2.13) ($) (1.43) prior ($) (2.12) Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ($) 4.22 N ($) 5.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (3.29) ($) (1.67) Ariad Pharmaceuticals ($) 0.98 N EPS Reported ($) (1.06) ($) (1.07) Array BioPharma ($) 4.23 OW ($) 6.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (2.86) ($) (2.31) Biodel Inc. ($) 4.59 OW ($) 9.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (1.77) ($) (1.17) Emergent BioSolutions ($) 26.26 OW ($) 32.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) 0.73 ($) 1.46 Exelixis Inc ($) 5.16 N ($) 6.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (1.55) ($) (1.25) prior ($) 0.00 ($) (1.57) ($) (1.20) Human Genome Sciences ($) 2.10 N EPS Reported ($) (1.90) ($) (0.66) Incyte Corporation ($) 3.90 OW ($) 8.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (1.99) ($) (1.71) MannKind Corporation ($) 3.81 N EPS Reported ($) (2.74) ($) (1.47) Nektar Therapeutics ($) 5.51 OW ($) 10.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (1.50) ($) (1.46) Onyx Pharmaceuticals ($) 34.48 OW ($) 49.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) 0.35 ($) 0.98 Orexigen Therapeutics ($) 5.89 OW ($) 18.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (2.81) ($) (2.51) Seattle Genetics ($) 9.21 OW ($) 12.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (1.01) ($) (0.88) prior ($) 0.00 Oct-02 The Medicines Company ($) 16.42 N ($) 18.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) (0.06) ($) 1.21 prior ($) 0.00 Feb-03 VIVUS, Inc ($) 5.37 OW ($) 15.00 Dec-09 EPS Reported ($) 0.02 ($) (0.78) Source: Company data, Reuters, J.P. Morgan estimates. All prices as at 05 Jan 09. See page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at <a href="http://www.morganmarkets.com">www.morganmarkets.com</a> or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research. We are introducing YE 2009 price targets for companies in our coverage universe. Acknowledging that there is no “one-size-fits-all” valuation approach in biotech, we utilize three different methodologies (real options, rNPV, and P/E) and also incorporate a “catalyst/liquidity” discount to more appropriately reflect the impact of both macro and company-specific issues. This report includes a 2-page review of our valuation approach and 2009 outlook for all 17 of our covered companies. • Greater conviction in mid-caps…Amid today’s tumultuous environment, we suspect investors will gravitate to companies with strong balance sheets and greater potential for near-term growth. Within our universe, we believe ONXX best fits this bill (and, hence, is our top pick for 2009). We also believe ALKS is in an attractive position, despite the ongoing controversy surrounding exenatide once weekly. • …But greater potential for significant upside in select small caps. Small cap biotechs are obviously more event driven in nature, and importantly, there is an abundance of potentially significant catalysts in 2009 (over 15 Ph3 data releases expected in our universe alone, including 8 obesity trials), in our view. Based on our initial YE09 targets, OREX has the greatest potential upside (200%+ from its 12/31 close of $5.58), which is not surprising considering we expect 5 important 2009 data releases (four Ph3 and one Ph2b) and 1-2 potential partnerships. However, we believe its chances of actually meeting this target will greatly depend on data expected later this week or early next at the J.P. Morgan healthcare conference. • Key focus on balance sheets. Within our universe, we believe ONXX, ALKS, and MDCO have the strongest balance sheets. On the other hand, we believe the three most tenuous are HGSI, INCY, and ARNA.