汇丰银行：2009年第一季度亚洲证券市场投资策略

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收藏 2009-01-20

This will be a particularly complex year for Asian equity markets. The irresistible force – ultra-low interest rates and huge fiscal packages – is meeting the immovable object – global deleveraging. Any strategist who tells you he has a clear view of how this will play out is deluding himself. In our view, these competing forces will produce sharp swings in stock markets in 2009. From time to time, macro data will improve sharply (it can hardly get any worse) and investors will conclude that the recession is ending. But, at other times, shocks such as the failure of a bank, a country default or the realisation that global imbalances will take longer to unwind, will deflate the optimism and markets will take a tumble. In this environment, we expect Asian markets at the end of 2009 to be ±10% of their current level. This is not an unusual pattern for the first year after a bottom: it is very rare for the stock market to enter into a new bull market straight away. In this environment, investors need to think about balancing risk and reward. At the least, 2009 will not be as bad as 2008, when Asian equities fell by 53%: neither will the global economy be a one-way downward spiral again this year. Our advice is that investors should take a little cyclical exposure while sticking to quality. That should give decent upside during the upswings, but avoid excessive downside risk during the corrections. The best way to do this is through a portfolio of blue-chip household-name stocks – what we call Asia’s Super Ten. Many of these stocks are somewhat cyclical – we would avoid too much exposure to pure defensives, which have become expensive. We have in mind a Nifty-Fifty style approach, as worked in similar periods of uncertainty in Japan in the 1990s and the US in the 1960s. We also recommend some exposure to deeply oversold, but still decent quality, stocks. With economic conditions likely to be volatile, sector bets will be less important than stock choices this year. We reduce our exposure to defensives, lowering telecoms, utilities and healthcare to neutral. Our overweights are in industrials and energy. In our market recommendations, we increase a little our cyclical exposure by raising Taiwan to neutral, and cutting Malaysia to underweight. We see the best balance of risk/reward in India (which we raise to overweight), China and Singapore.目录Investment strategy 4 Irresistible force meets immovable object 4 Where do things stand now? 6 What of the long-term picture? 14 Market recommendations 16 Complex factors 16 Sector recommendations/ investment themes 21 Asia’s Super Ten 21 Main markets 25 Japan (neutral) 26 China (overweight) &amp; Hong Kong (neutral) 28 Korea (underweight) 32 Taiwan (neutral) 34 India (overweight) 36 Other markets 39 Australia 40 Singapore 41 Malaysia 42 Indonesia 43 Thailand 44 Philippines 45 Datapack 46 Country/ Sector performance 46 Earnings 48 Valuation 49 Supply &amp; demand 50 Politics and risk 51 Sectors and stocks 52 Economic forecasts 56 Top stock picks 57 Bank of China - 3988, OW(V) 58 Canara Bank - CBK, OW(V) 59 Cathay Pacific - 293, OW 60 CESC - CESC, OW(V) 61 China Agri - 606, OW(V) 62 China Steel - 2002, OW(V) 63 ICBC - 1398, OW(V) 64 Infosys Tech - INFY, OW(V) 65 Kingboard Chemical - 148, OW(V) 66 Li &amp; Fung - 494, OW(V) 67 Maanshan - 0323, OW(V) 68 Pacific Basin - 2343, OW(V) 69 Reliance Industries - RIL, OW(V) 70 Shanghai Electric - 2727, OW(V) 71 Sinopec - 0386, OW(V) 72 Sinotrans - 598, OW(V) 73 TSMC - 2330, OW 74 ZTE - 763, OW(V) 75 Disclosure appendix 76 Disclaimer 79