Contents
Teen Retailers....................................................................................................................................................... 3
Initiating Coverage on the Teen Retailers: Worse for the Wear ..................................................................................3
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION................................................................................................................ 3
INDUSTRY INVESTMENT THESIS....................................................................................................................... 3
VALUATION: NEAR-TROUGH LEVELS.............................................................................................................. 4
RISKS.................................................................................................................................................................... 4
TEEN MARKET: DETERIORATING DEMOGRAPHICS...................................................................................... 5
MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS REMAIN WEAK ........................................................................................... 6
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT = WEAKER SALES.................................................................................................. 7
FEAR TAKES HOLD OF THE MARKET............................................................................................................. 10
THE KBCM SOFTLINES RATINGS FRAMEWORK.......................................................................................... 12
CASH IS KING IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT ......................................................................................... 15
A FEW FINAL THOUGHTS…............................................................................................................................. 16
Aéropostale, Inc. (ARO-NYSE).......................................................................................................................... 18
Initiating Coverage with a BUY Rating: Value Flying High ........................................................................................18
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN-NASDAQ)........................................................................................................... 36
Initiating Coverage with a BUY Rating: Outfitted for Stable Growth ..........................................................................36
American Apparel, Inc. (APP-AMEX)................................................................................................................ 56
Initiating Coverage with a HOLD Rating: High Growth, Highly Risqué.......................................................................56
The Buckle, Inc. (BKE-NYSE) ............................................................................................................................ 78
Initiating Coverage with a HOLD Rating: Bucking the Trend.....................................................................................78
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF-NYSE)............................................................................................................. 96
Initiating Coverage with an UNDERWEIGHT Rating: Aspiring for Growth, But Stumbling on Duds .............................96
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Disclosures and Certifications.................................................................... 117