Contents
Page No.
Investment summary .......................................................................................3-5
11th plan capacity addition back-ended, risk of further slippages ..............6-10
Power generation YTD at 93% of target, PLF down 340bp YoY .................... 11
High base, peak deficits leading to increased power tariffs ......................12-14
Companies....................................................................................................15-33
NTPC .........................................................................................16
Tata Power .................................................................................23
Reliance Infrastructure .............................................................29
CESC..........................................................................................32
Private sector ...............................................................................................35-40
Adani Power ...............................................................................36
GMR Energy .............................................................................37
GVK Power & Infra. .................................................................37
Jaiprakash Power ......................................................................38
Jindal Power ...............................................................................39
KSK Energy...............................................................................39
Lanco Infratech .........................................................................40

11th plan capacity addition back-ended, risk of further slippages
Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has in its latest report (November, 2008) indicated
that capacity addition during April - November 2008 stood at 2,059MW, vs. target of
8,471MW, an achievement of just 24%. During the Eleventh Plan, capacity addition till
date stands at 11,322MW, vs target 25,256MW, an achievement of just 44%. This clearly
indicates significant delays in terms of project commissioning.
Given the delays, CEA has stated that the feasible capacity addition during FY09 stands at
7,530MW vs. targeted 11,061 MW, and for FY10 at 15,451MW from 18,034MW. The
entire reduction is due to delays in terms of commissioning of thermal power projects.
This has lead to a bunching up of capacity addition in FY12 at 28,733MW, representing
36% of the planned capacity in 11th plan.

NTPC, private players, etc likely to miss capacity addition targets
During FY09, CEA expects capacity addition of 1,500MW by NTPC and 2,761MW from
private players. During April - November 2008, actual capacity addition by NTPC and
private players have been 250MW each, and a large part of the targeted capacity additions
have now been pushed to December 2008/4QFY09. Thus, we believe that there could be
further delays in terms of capacity commissioning.
For NTPC, while the targeted capacity addition during Eleventh Plan stands at 22,430
MW, CEA expects projects under constructions like Barh I (660MW), Barh II (1,320
MW), Mauda Maharashtra (1,000 MW), and Nabinagar JV (250 MW), totaling to 3,230
MW to be delayed to the Twelfth plan. Thus, CEA expects capacity addition of only
15,440 MW for NTPC, during the Eleventh Plan (as 3,760MW of projects are yet to be
awarded). Also, as per CEA, Adani, TTPW and CESC have projects of 2,640MW,

2,900MW and 250MW under construction, to be commissioned in the Eleventh Plan. Of
this, 2,705MW is expected to be merchant, comprising of 640MW by Adani Power and
100MW by Tata Power (part of its 250MW expansion at Trombay), 1,000MW by Jindal
Power, 552MW by Lanco Infratech. This should add to earnings in a sizeable manner,
given the current power trading rates at Rs6-8/unit

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-20 22:42:06编辑过]