A-share new floats could reach over Rmb3trn in 2009, or
60%+ of existing floatable market cap. Monthly distribution
patterns suggest pressure in Feb-May and Aug

􀀗 We estimate about Rmb150bn newly floatable non-tradable
shares and Rmb100bn unlocked IPO shares could be sold,
averaging Rmb20bn+ liquidity drain per month

􀀗 Regulators are expected to introduce long-term funds to
match the new supply. Yet resolution will take time and on
its own won’t be enough to revitalize a bull market

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