Share price weakness and buoyant
domestic demand are seductive aspects
of the Brazilian steel stories, …
􀀗 … but could there be cruel intentions
behind growth, integration, consolidation,
and internationalization plans?
􀀗 Usiminas is our top pick in the Brazilian
steel sector; Gerdau is an interesting
case; CSN is a risky story, in our view
Usiminas is our top pick in the Brazilian steel sector. We
think Usiminas is a transparent and reliable story of accretive
integration and deliverable organic growth. We expect the
JMendes expansion to help Usiminas reach self-sufficiency in
iron ore by 2013 and enjoy structurally higher margins
thereafter.
Gerdau, we believe, is an interesting vehicle to play Brazil,
but is subject to American woes. Gerdau is, in our view, the
best vehicle to play the booming Brazilian civil construction
sector, but concerns brought by its US exposure could weigh on
its stock performance. Lack of significant organic growth
makes us believe the company is likely to remain an active
consolidator, which naturally embeds risks.
CSN is a risky story, in our view. We believe capex for the
Casa de Pedra 50mtpy phase and NAMISA projects could
come out c100% and c30%, respectively, above management
guidance, while the budget for the pelletizing plant under
company’s consideration, could be overrun by c20%. We think
delays in the implementation of the Casa de Pedra 40mtpy
phase could lead to iron ore production figures for 2009 that are
15% below the company’s challenging goals, not only affecting
management credibility but also creating room for likely delays
in subsequent expansions. We also think there are uncertainties
about the scope of the company’s steel projects and also timing
mismatches between execution schedules.
Contrarian call on iron ore, conservative stance about steel
prices. HSBC’s Global Metals & Mining team expects steel
prices to peak in 2008 and prices for Brazilian iron ore to fall
5% in 2009

目录

Investment thesis 4
The game of seduction 5
Valuation and risks 13
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer 14
Sector overview 29
Cycle peaking 30
Company profiles 35
Usiminas 36
Gerdau Group 41
CSN 48
Financials 53
Appendices 58
Disclosure appendix 72
Disclaimer 75