Banca Generali (Overweight, lowering
price target to EUR9.5 from EUR10.0)
remains our favoured play in the Italian
asset gathering space
􀀗 Azimut (Neutral, EUR8.1 price target)
and Mediolanum (Neutral, cutting price
target to EUR4.4 from EUR5.5) also offer
absolute upside, but are not attractive
on a relative basis
􀀗 Assoreti industry data show the
financial advisor industry continues to
grow, but those looking at Assogestioni
data may conclude it is shrinking
In this note, we discuss why we believe the share-price
performance of the Italian asset gathering industry, and
Banca Generali, in particular, is unfairly influenced by
Assogestioni industry data.
Assogestioni data cover the Italian mutual fund industry,
comprising banks, insurers and financial advisors. They
show the industry is shrinking – there have been EUR80bn
in cumulative net outflows over the past 14 months.
Assoreti data cover the financial advisor channel, which
offers mutual funds, insurance and asset administration
services, making it more relevant for understanding the
longer-term operating performance and earnings potential of
Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum, in our view.
Assoreti data show the industry is growing, with a
c.EUR12bn net inflow, or 6% rise in AUM in 2007.
We believe Banca Generali is the most attractive investment
in this space as a result of (1) its valuation and superior
earnings growth prospects; (2) an innovative and sustainable
business model that should continue to generate a market
leading share of net inflows; (3) an uplift from a lower tax
rate as an increasing proportion of assets are managed in
Luxembourg; (4) the prospect of Banca Generali becoming
the manufacturer of all Generali group SICAVs; (5) a higher
proportion of revenues from management fees; (6) no backbook
issues and (7) limited risk from regulatory changes

目录

Investment summary 3
Assoreti data 7
Assogestioni data 17
Banca Generali 20
Mediolanum 23
Disclosure appendix 27
Disclaimer 30