Mobile to benefit from regulatory
change; would gain at expense of fixed
􀀗 Smaller mobile players to gain market
share in a fast-growth market
􀀗 Initiate PT Telkom with Neutral and PT
Indosat with Overweight, which fits well
in our GEM thematic structure
Recent regulatory changes favour small mobile players
over large hybrid (fixed-mobile) operators in an underpenetrated,
under-served fast growth market. PT Telkom, the
fixed line incumbent with a 65% stake in mobile market
leader Telkomsel, is the loser and PT Indosat, the no.2
mobile operator is the winner, in our view.
Indosat offers high beta exposure in a growth market.
We forecast Indosat’s earnings CAGR of c19% over next
three years versus c6% for PT Telekom. Indosat’s earnings
growth will also benefit as rising scale more-than-offsets
high fixed costs (operating leverage) and interest expenses
(financial leverage). Indosat should be attractive to both Asia
and GEM investors given strong market growth, explosive
earnings growth, high foreign investment limit, and potential
M&A catalyst.
Our DCF-methodology with a WACC of 13.2% implies a
target of IDR11,300 and an upside of 13% for Telkom and a
target of IDR9,900 and an upside of 36% for Indosat.
Indosat’s multiples don’t reflect the strong growth ahead and
it trades at an unjustified discount of c23% on PEG and 1-yr.
fwd. EV/EBITDA basis compared to Telkom.
Usage growth would be the catalyst for Indosat. The key
catalysts are the cut in interconnect rates- leading to higher
usage. The key risks are execution on pricing cuts, success
of competitor’s tower sharing strategy, anti-monopoly
authority’s case against Temasek and potential forced selldown
of its stake in Indosat.

目录

Investment Summary 2
Market Overview 8
Competitor Profiles 16
Excelcomindo 17
Bakrie Telecom 19
Mobile-8 & HCPT 21
PT Telkom 22
Falling Fixed 23
Growing Mobile 28
Valuations & Risks 31
PT Indosat 36
Cleaner mobile exposure 37
Valuations & Risks 41
Disclosure appendix 45
Disclaimer 48