􀀗 Equipment ordering for the 11th Plan
completed; focus turns to execution
􀀗 We examine the status of current
projects; firms with operating experience
and financial stability emerge as winners
􀀗 Reiterate OW(V) on CESC and Tata
Power, N(V) on Lanco; downgrade NTPC
to UW(V) from N(V)
Focus to shift on execution. Equipment ordering is now
complete for the 11th Plan, achieving a critical milestone in
project execution. Now, the focus will shift towards project
developers in terms of project completion. We have looked at
the status of projects under construction for stocks we cover.
We prefer developers with operating experience, financial
stability and projects that have achieved financial closure.
CESC: OW(V), TP = INR345. We like CESC primarily
because of its gradual capacity addition plan, which prevents
it from spreading itself too thin. We ascribe no value to the
real estate and retail businesses and retain our estimates,
target price, and rating.
Tata Power: OW(V), TP = INR1,000. Its 5.6GW of capacity
addition is supported by fuel sourcing and funding strategy. We
reduce our FY10e profit estimates by 21% to incorporate lower
coal realisation; we lower our target price to INR1,000.
Lanco Infratech: N(V), TP = INR132. 3.9GW of power
projects are in advanced stages of execution, with 600MW to be
operational by FY10e. However, real estate and infrastructure
development continue to drag. We reduce our FY10e estimates
by 18% and lower the target price to INR132.
NTPC: UW(V), TP = INR142. NTPC enjoys the best
positioning in terms of access to funds and fuels, but the market
is ignoring delays in project execution (HSBC estimates
11.9GW vs company’s guidance of 22GW). Maintain our
estimates and target, but downgade to UW(V).

目录

Focus turns to execution 3
From orders to execution 3
Potential winners 3
BHEL to benefit from capacity addition 5
NTPC capacity addition plan 5
We prefer Tata Power among private-sector utilities 7
CESC Ltd (CESC) 12
Key triggers 13
Valuation 14
Risks 14
Financials & valuation 15
Lanco Infratech (LANCI) 16
De-risking the power portfolio 16
Valuation 18
Risks 19
Financials & valuation 20
NTPC Ltd (NATP) 21
Strong project pipeline, but poor execution 21
Should continue to trade at a premium 22
Valuation 22
Risks 23
Financials & valuation 24
Tata Power (TPWR) 25
Best-placed Indian utility 25
Fuel and funds well tied up 26
Valuation 27
Risks 28
Financials & valuation 29
Annexure 30
Hectic equipment ordering in 2008 30
Why were targets not met? 30
Disclosure appendix 32
Disclaimer 36
Contents