China: Chinese trade flows: Global recession vs. fiscal
stimulus
See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
• Sharp decline in Asian exports sent early signs of plunge in G3 final
demand.
• China outperforming other major Asian exporters; lower end consumer
goods better than tech.
• Commodity imports and machinery benefited from past stimulus; boost
may be smaller this time.
• With global GDP contracting 4.5% annualized in 4Q08, the sharpest
decline in over a quarter century, trade flows in Asia have fallen
significantly. The global economy is expected to contract at a similarly
severe pace in 1Q, as the latest data on G3 final demand continues to
disappoint, before recovering moderately in 2H as policy stimulus starts
to kick in. Potential further disappointment in global final demand is thus
a major risk for Asian exporters in 2009.
• Greater China exports and global demand
• When Asian exports fell sharply last October-November, one of the
suggested explanations was a temporary interruption of trade financing.
However, subsequent data releases pointed to the sharp weakening in G3
final demand toward year end, with very weak US retail sales (chart) and
a severe contraction in G3 capital goods orders, as the primary factor
behind the collapse. Going forward, this early warning by Asian exports
may also be helpful in gauging whether the moderate 2H09 global
recovery as J.P. Morgan is currently forecasting realizes.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-31 14:18:52编辑过]