全球证券市场数量化研究

Quantitative Analysis
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Global Dividend Strategy
Dividend Strategy Worldwide
Given the recent market volatility, many investors are looking toward dividends
to point them in the right direction. In our Global Dividend Strategy series of
reports, we examined 12 countries, calculating which combination of dividend
yield and dividend payout ratio worked best to indicate future performance.
Especially in the current market, we find good reason for continued interest in
dividends.
Dividend Yield and Payout Ratio
In the majority of the markets we examined, the maximum performance was
delivered by companies with high dividend yields and low payout ratios. This
strategy had the best performance in our U.S. empirical test since 1990. (See
Exhibit 1.) In some countries, such as Germany, high yield, high payout was the
top strategy.
Dividend Yield
Stocks with high yields generally outperformed those with low yields. Our
empirical tests verified this in all of the markets we examined. While high
dividend paying stocks have dipped along with the rest of the market, they have
maintained their status as top performers.

Table of Contents
Dividend Strategy for the United States............................................................................... 3
Dividend Yield...................................................................................................................... 5
The Dividend Factor ............................................................................................................ 6
Earnings and Dividends Timeline ........................................................................................ 7
Dividend Payout Ratio Decline ............................................................................................ 8
Percentage Paying Dividends............................................................................................ 10
Dividend Yield and Bond Yield .......................................................................................... 11
Dividends in Global Markets .............................................................................................. 12
Dividend Strategy Worldwide............................................................................................. 13
Canada .............................................................................................................................. 14
United Kingdom ................................................................................................................. 15
Japan................................................................................................................................ 16
Germany........................................................................................................................... 17
China ................................................................................................................................ 18
France............................................................................................................................... 19
Hong Kong......................................................................................................................... 20
Switzerland ........................................................................................................................ 21
Australia............................................................................................................................ 22
Italy ................................................................................................................................... 23
South Korea....................................................................................................................... 24
Appendix A: U.S. Dividend Yield and Payout Ratio Performance ..................................... 25
Appendix B: Empirical Test Methodology.......................................................................... 26
References ........................................................................................................................ 27