英文文献：Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments-预测美国经济衰退:情绪的作用
英文文献作者：Charlotte Christiansen,Jonas Nygaard Eriksen,Stig V. M?ller
英文文献摘要：
We examine sentiment variables as new predictors for US recessions. We combine sentiment variables with either classical recession predictors or with common factors based on a large panel of macroeconomic and ?nancial variables. Sentiment variables hold vast predictive power for US recessions in excess of both the classical recession predictors and the common factors. The strong importance of the sentiment variables is documented both in-sample and out-of-sample.

我们研究了情绪变量作为美国经济衰退的新预测因素。我们将情绪变量与经典的衰退预测因子或基于大量宏观经济和社会变量的共同因素结合起来。情绪变量对美国经济衰退具有巨大的预测能力，超过了传统的衰退预测指标和常见因素。样本内和样本外都记录了情绪变量的强烈重要性。