􀀗 Bonds, rates, and FX should continue to
be hostage to global events; spread
products appear unlikely to recover
solidly until bank stocks turn around
􀀗 The current disinflation process
suggests the best opportunities are in
local markets; we like receivers in Brazil
and Mexico
􀀗 We expect external debt to continue to
underperform; FX seems likely to
remain volatile, and we recommend
long MXN-short CLP positions
Welcome to Local Knowledge
This is the first issue of our new flagship publication,
featuring our best ideas and views in fixed income and FX in
Latin America.
The front section of this report outlines the outlook for rates
and FX, with a short- to medium-term perspective. We
propose trade ideas to which we give clear targets and stops.
We intend to open and close these trade ideas in a timely
fashion and to promote them in separate trade idea notes, so
this biweekly should be seen only as a reference piece.
With the collaboration of HSBC’s economics team on the
ground, we provide a summary view of the state of the
different Latin American economies, discussing our views
on monetary policy and inflation.
We provide a set of analytics for investors to understand
better and monitor the recent trends in the fixed income and
FX markets and to facilitate the discovery of new trade
ideas.
We welcome your feedback.
HSBC Fixed Income and FX Latin America Strategy Teams

目录

Market overview 3
Summary of views 9
The pulse of the market 10
Trade ideas and portfolios 11
Country overviews 12
Argentina 12
Brazil 13
Chile 14
Colombia 15
Ecuador 16
Mexico 17
Peru 19
Venezuela 20
Central America 21
Latin America Surprise Indices 22
Central Bank Watcher 23
Charts & tables
Local markets 24
Inflation linkers and break-evens 25
External debt 27
External debt yield curves 29
External debt bonds, CDS & basis 30
External debt bonds, CDS & basis 31
FX forecast & NDF 32
Forward/NDF-implied yield curves 33
FX multilateral real effective exchange rate (REER) 34
Disclosure appendix 38
Disclaimer 39
Contents