这是动态经济学的入门教材。内容涉及到经济学动态化的各个方面。

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目录

1 Introduction
1.1 Definitions and concepts 1
1.2 Dynamic models 3
1.3 Deterministic dynamical models 5
1.4 Dynamical systems on a spreadsheet 6
1.5 Experimentation 9
1.6 Difference equations 10
1.7 Attractors and repellors 12
1.8 Nonlinear dynamical systems 14
1.9 Continuous models 20
1.10 Continuous differential equations on a spreadsheet 22
1.11 Conclusion 25
Exercises 25
2 Demand and supply dynamics
2.1 Beyond the textbook 27
2.2 The linear cobweb model 31
2.3 Experimentation 34
2.4 Different expectations 35
2.5 The Goodwin model of expectations 37
2.6 Nonlinear cobwebs 39
2.7 Ceilings and floors 40
2.8 Cobwebs in interrelated markets 43
Exercises 45
3 Simple Keynesian dynamics
3.1 The Keynesian-cross diagram 48
3.2 Some simple dynamics 50
3.3 Experimentation: 1 52
3.4 The dynamic multiplier 54
3.5 A dynamic model with taxes 56
3.6 Experimentation: 2 58
3.7 The multiplier–accelerator model 60
3.8 Introduction of net exports 63
3.9 Experimentation: 3 66
Exercises 67
v
Contents
4 Constructing trajectories in the phase plane
4.1 Trajectories and fixed points 69
4.2 Isoclines and vector forces: continuous models 72
4.3 Constructing continuous trajectories with a spreadsheet 74
4.4 Isoclines and vector forces: discrete models 76
4.5 Constructing discrete trajectories with a spreadsheet 77
4.6 A cautionary note 78
4.7 A variety of trajectories 79
4.8 Limit cycles 84
4.9 Lorenz curves and strange attractors 85
4.10 Conclusion 87
Exercises 89
5 IS-LM dynamics
5.1 The static model 91
5.2 Instantaneous money market adjustment 94
5.3 A continuous model 98
5.4 Continuous IS-LM on a spreadsheet 101
5.5 A discrete version of the IS-LM model 105
5.6 Interest rate ceiling 107
5.7 Conclusion 108
Exercises 108
6 Inflation–unemployment dynamics
6.1 The Phillips curve 110
6.2 A simple macroeconomic model of inflation 111
6.3 The dynamics of the simple model 115
6.4 Dynamic model with positive inflation 117
6.5 A change in the money supply 123
6.6 A change in the natural level of unemployment 124
6.7 Continuous model 125
6.8 Conclusion 127
Exercises 128
7 Dynamics of the firm
7.1 Introduction 130
7.2 Monopoly and advertising 130
7.3 Advertising model: discrete version 133
7.4 Diffusion models 135
7.5 Static theory of oligopoly 138
7.6 Discrete dynamic model with output adjusting
instantaneously 140
7.7 Dynamic oligopoly with three firms 142
7.8 Partial-adjustment duopoly model 143
Exercises 146
vi Contents
8 Saddles and rational expectations
8.1 What are saddles? 149
8.2 Two examples 150
8.3 The Dornbusch model under perfect foresight 157
8.4 A numerical example 161
8.5 A rise in the money supply 164
8.6 Announcement effects 166
8.7 Discrete systems exhibiting saddle solutions 170
Exercises 172
9 Fiscal dynamics and the Maastricht Treaty
9.1 Budgetary concepts 174
9.2 Budget dynamics with no inflation and no monetary
financing 176
9.3 A numerical example 180
9.4 Budget dynamics with inflation and money plus bond
financing 181
9.5 Some numerical examples 184
9.6 Budget criteria of the Maastricht Treaty 188
9.7 Some final observations on the Maastricht Treaty 191
Exercises 192
10 A little bit of chaos
10.1 Introduction 194
10.2 Defining bifurcations 195
10.3 Saddle-node bifurcation 198
10.4 A transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation 200
10.5 The logistic equation, periodic-doubling bifurcations
and chaos 202
10.6 Sensitivity to initial conditions and unusual patterns 207
10.7 Van der Pol equations and a Hopf bifurcation 209
10.8 Lorenz equations again 211
Exercises 213
Brief answers to selected exercises 215
Further reading 220
Index 221

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