1.Our approach reveals that stock returns and dividend-price ratios are too volatile to be accounted for by news about future dividends. Further, this excess volatility is closely related to the predictability of multiperiod returns. It has recently been shown that stock returns are more highly predictable when they are measured over intervals of several years, rather than over short intervals of a year or less.

2.a plot of at and 3' (Figure 1) shows a suggestion of short-run coherence, even though the overall correlation between the two is virtually zero. Our VAR results also indicate that the dividend-price ratio helps to forecast short-run dividend changes.

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