急啊，急求帮助 - Stata专版

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收藏 2009-04-24

<div>这是我用stata做出来的结果，能不能请在行的朋友帮我看看怎么解释这个结果，这是应用计量的一个project，让做成一个小的paper。但是我error correction 做完之后，不知道具体怎么翻译这个结果。表中变量，ex 出口 m2 货币供给 re是外汇储备。我人在国外，但是数据找的都是国内的。本人才疏学浅，还请高人指点</div><div><br/></div><div><font face="宋体">Vector error-correction model</font></div><div><font face="宋体"><br/></font></div><div><font face="宋体">Sample: &nbsp;2001m10 - 2008m5 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;No. of obs &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;= &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;80</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; AIC &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; = -19.21719</font></div><div><font face="宋体">Log likelihood = &nbsp;785.6877 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; HQIC &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;= -19.01425</font></div><div><font face="宋体">Det(Sigma_ml) &nbsp;= &nbsp;5.92e-13 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; SBIC &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;= -18.71101</font></div><div><font face="宋体"><br/></font></div><div><font face="宋体">Equation &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Parms &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;RMSE &nbsp; &nbsp; R-sq &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;chi2 &nbsp; &nbsp; P&gt;chi2</font></div><div><font face="宋体">----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnre &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;5 &nbsp; &nbsp; .013389 &nbsp; 0.8214 &nbsp; 344.8935 &nbsp; 0.0000</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnmex &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5 &nbsp; &nbsp; .006099 &nbsp; 0.9368 &nbsp; 1111.827 &nbsp; 0.0000</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnm2 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;5 &nbsp; &nbsp; .010765 &nbsp; 0.6851 &nbsp; 163.1632 &nbsp; 0.0000</font></div><div><font face="宋体">----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;Coef. &nbsp; Std. Err. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;z &nbsp; &nbsp;P&gt;|z| &nbsp; &nbsp; [95% Conf. Interval]</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnre &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;_ce1 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; L1. | &nbsp; &nbsp;-.05507 &nbsp; .0381914 &nbsp; &nbsp;-1.44 &nbsp; 0.149 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.1299239 &nbsp; &nbsp;.0197838</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnre |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp; .1831815 &nbsp; &nbsp;.115571 &nbsp; &nbsp; 1.59 &nbsp; 0.113 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.0433336 &nbsp; &nbsp;.4096966</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; lnmex |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp;-.0541214 &nbsp; .1400613 &nbsp; &nbsp;-0.39 &nbsp; 0.699 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.3286365 &nbsp; &nbsp;.2203936</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnm2 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp; .0959493 &nbsp; .1194207 &nbsp; &nbsp; 0.80 &nbsp; 0.422 &nbsp; &nbsp; -.138111 &nbsp; &nbsp;.3300096</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; _cons | &nbsp; .0228148 &nbsp; .0045329 &nbsp; &nbsp; 5.03 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp; .0139305 &nbsp; &nbsp;.0316992</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnmex &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;|</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;_ce1 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; L1. | &nbsp; .0778305 &nbsp; .0173968 &nbsp; &nbsp; 4.47 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp; .0437334 &nbsp; &nbsp;.1119276</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnre |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp;-.0192855 &nbsp; .0526445 &nbsp; &nbsp;-0.37 &nbsp; 0.714 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.1224668 &nbsp; &nbsp;.0838958</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; lnmex |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp; .7941343 &nbsp; .0638002 &nbsp; &nbsp;12.45 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp; .6690882 &nbsp; &nbsp;.9191804</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnm2 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp; -.053087 &nbsp; .0543981 &nbsp; &nbsp;-0.98 &nbsp; 0.329 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.1597053 &nbsp; &nbsp;.0535313</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; _cons | &nbsp; .0051681 &nbsp; .0020648 &nbsp; &nbsp; 2.50 &nbsp; 0.012 &nbsp; &nbsp; .0011212 &nbsp; &nbsp;.0092151</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">D_lnm2 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;_ce1 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; L1. | &nbsp; .0412033 &nbsp; .0307072 &nbsp; &nbsp; 1.34 &nbsp; 0.180 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.0189817 &nbsp; &nbsp;.1013883</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnre |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp;-.0206342 &nbsp; &nbsp;.092923 &nbsp; &nbsp;-0.22 &nbsp; 0.824 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;-.20276 &nbsp; &nbsp;.1614917</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; lnmex |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp; .0290655 &nbsp; &nbsp;.112614 &nbsp; &nbsp; 0.26 &nbsp; 0.796 &nbsp; &nbsp; -.191654 &nbsp; &nbsp;.2497849</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnm2 |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; LD. | &nbsp;-.5345349 &nbsp; .0960183 &nbsp; &nbsp;-5.57 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.7227273 &nbsp; -.3463425</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; _cons | &nbsp; .0207307 &nbsp; .0036446 &nbsp; &nbsp; 5.69 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp; .0135874 &nbsp; &nbsp; .027874</font></div><div><font face="宋体">------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体"><br/></font></div><div><font face="宋体">Cointegrating equations</font></div><div><font face="宋体"><br/></font></div><div><font face="宋体">Equation &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Parms &nbsp; &nbsp;chi2 &nbsp; &nbsp; P&gt;chi2</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">_ce1 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;2 &nbsp; 8168.815 &nbsp; 0.0000</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体"><br/></font></div><div><font face="宋体">Identification: &nbsp;beta is exactly identified</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Johansen normalization restriction imposed</font></div><div><font face="宋体">------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;beta | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;Coef. &nbsp; Std. Err. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;z &nbsp; &nbsp;P&gt;|z| &nbsp; &nbsp; [95% Conf. Interval]</font></div><div><font face="宋体">-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font face="宋体">_ce1 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; |</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnre | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;1 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; . &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; .</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; lnmex | &nbsp; -1.33695 &nbsp; .2060953 &nbsp; &nbsp;-6.49 &nbsp; 0.000 &nbsp; &nbsp; -1.74089 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.933011</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;lnm2 | &nbsp; .1393481 &nbsp; .3444512 &nbsp; &nbsp; 0.40 &nbsp; 0.686 &nbsp; &nbsp;-.5357639 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;.81446</font></div><div><font face="宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; _cons | &nbsp; .5754849 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; . &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; .</font></div><div><font face="宋体">------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><br/></div>

[此贴子已经被蓝色于2009-4-24 17:15:48编辑过]