Not evident is whether another recession looms. While current data suggests that modest growth continues in the United States, economists are notoriously bad at forecasting downturns. As The Economist noted, between 1999 and 2014, the International Monetary Fund, in its April forecasts, failed to predict every one of the 220 instances in which one of its members suffered negative annual growth in the next year. Even the Federal Reserve uncharacteristically recently described the outlook as “unclear.”
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